RABOBANK'S senior commodities analyst believes the buoyant pricing signals will mean Australian farmers push hard to get towards the bank's May forecast of a record plant in spite of the wet conditions casting a pall over sowing in NSW and Queensland.
Cheryl Kalisch Gordon acknowledged there were difficulties that could see a retreat from the 23.83 million hectares flagged in Rabobank's recent Winter Crop Outlook, but added the high prices meant a different yield requirement for a profitable crop and potentially farmers more willing to push the planting window envelope.
"With normal pricing farmers may make the decision that they are unlikely to see the yields required to make it worthwhile planting so late, but with high grain prices, high moisture levels and the above average likelihood of a milder spring they may decide they will plant later than they otherwise might," Dr Kalisch Gordon said.
On the flip side she said further rain before the end of June in drenched areas like central and northern NSW may mean farmers decided to wait and plant a summer crop in spring instead.
"There are a lot of factors in play, we could see changes in crop composition towards shorter season crops like barley or chickpeas or we could see farmers opt to stick with wheat as it is more water tolerant or we could see people wait for summer cropping, the next few weeks will be very interesting," she said.
"From there on farmers will be watching anxiously until the days start to lengthen and warm up as even relatively small rainfall events on smaller plants could cause issues with waterlogging."
However, Dr Kalisch Gordon also pointed out in spite of the well publicised big wet on the eastern seaboard many other cropping areas were in near ideal condition.
"Places like Western Australia and Victoria may see rises in planted area as the opening break has been near ideal and again the pricing signal has been there to plant if you can."
Dr Kalisch Gordon said should planting reach Rabo's estimates it would be 1pc above last year's previous Australian record for hectares planted and a considerable 11pc above the five year average.
She said canola and wheat were leading the charge, both buoyed by record pricing.
"Canola was tipped to be up 20.9pc on last year, primarily at the expense of barley and pulses, much of the canola was the crop first planted so unless areas have been wet for a long time that would still be close to on track, and we're hearing of novel ways of people trying to plant canola such as by using a plane if the paddock is too wet."
Dr Kalisch Gordon said on a state-by-state level Victoria was set to increase plantings by 10pc and Queensland by 8pc, although delays in planting may change this.
Western Australia was due to drop planted area by a percent but with the good conditions there that may also change as farmers look to take advantage of high grain prices.
In terms of overall production, Rabobank said it was too early to make an accurate assessment.
Report co-author, RaboResearch agricultural analyst Dennis Voznesenski said while the outlook was for another bumper harvest, there was plenty that needed to happen before that becomes a reality.
"At this point in time, until the crop is more progressed and we can see if there are any surprises in store, we have been conservative in our production volume estimates," Mr Voznesenski said.
"In particular we're mindful of the slow planting progress in NSW and the corresponding decline in yield potential with late planting, as well as overly-wet growing conditions," he said.
Based on current plantings and estimates, the bank forecasts Australia will be on track to deliver total wheat production of 32.5 million tonnes, down 10pc on last year, barley of 11 million tonnes down 18pc and canola of 5.8 million tonnes, down 9pc.
Gregor Heard
Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.
Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.
