LARGE areas of NSW are having a drier-than-average June as La Nina loses its grip in the Pacific Ocean.
Most of NSW has received less than half of the average June rainfall so far this month.
Many areas in the state's east and north west are currently sitting below 20 per cent of the monthly average.
While passing cold fronts will bring a few showers in southern NSW during the next several days, the rest of the state will continue to record predominantly dry weather until at least early next week.
Related reading:
This has been a noticeable change from the wet weather patterns that dominated in recent months, producing the state's wettest May in 26 years and wettest autumn in 26 years.
The switch to a drier weather pattern coincides with the weakening of La Nina in the Pacific Ocean over the past several weeks.
The Bureau of Meteorology's latest climate driver update, released on Tuesday this week, stated that "the 2021-22 La Nina event has reached an end, with a majority of indicators currently at neutral levels".
This ends a seven-month La Nina episode that was declared in November 2021 and went on to produce record-breaking rain and flooding in parts of central and eastern NSW.
The end of this high-impact La Nina is sure to come as welcome news to the flood-weary communities and industries in eastern Australia.
However, this may not be the end of the story just yet.
While the Pacific Ocean has returned to a neutral state based on the Bureau of Meteorology's criteria, sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific are still in a La Nina-like state.
Furthermore, a number of international forecast models suggest that La Nina may return later this year, most likely during spring.
The Bureau's ENSO Outlook is currently at La Nina WATCH, which means there is around a 50 per cent chance of La Nina forming later in 2022.
This is about double the normal likelihood and increases the likelihood of above-average rain in NSW during winter and spring.
- Ben Domensino is a meteorologist at Weatherzone.
