WHILE eastern NSW is keeping an eye on a low pressure system moving down from the Coral Sea, most areas of western NSW are expected to see a predominantly dry end to July.
A combination of onshore winds and a southward-moving low pressure system will cause showers to increase over most districts of eastern NSW during the next few days.
If the low moves close enough to the coast, there may even be periods of heavy rain and strong winds along the state's northern coast and ranges on Friday and Saturday, before easing on Sunday.
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If this weather is likely to become severe, warnings will be issued where necessary.
Some of the moisture from this week's onshore winds is also producing rain over the state's northern inland, where a low pressure trough is lingering.
This rainfall started on Wednesday and will continue today, before clearing by Friday.
Looking ahead, a passing cold front could deliver another brief burst of showers over the southern and central districts of NSW early next week, although heavy rain is unlikely with this system.
A large high pressure system should then become the dominant feature over NSW from the middle of next week, maintaining mostly dry and settled weather until the end of the month.
Despite this relatively dry end to July for most inland districts of NSW, the odds are still favouring above-average rainfall during August and spring.
A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is becoming established in the Indian Ocean and will likely be declared by the Bureau of Meteorology in early August.
There are also signs that La Nina may return to the Pacific Ocean in spring.
Both of these climate drivers - a negative IOD and La Nina - increase the likelihood of above average rain in NSW.
