When Vera Lynn sang about a nightingale singing in Berkeley Square, it was a morale booster for the citizens of the UK in the midst of World War II.
Last week a nightingale sang a very different song at the door of the Australian Stock Exchange.
An initial public offer by drone company Nightingale Systems was cancelled and relaunched at a significantly cheaper price. It is a dramatic and embarrassing about-face.
The company says the decision was made "due to market conditions becoming increasingly unfavourable against the backdrop of rising inflation, the ongoing war in Ukraine, energy shortages and supply chain challenges".
But IPOs take months to prepare, and all those headwinds were already obvious in August.
What has changed in confidence in the stock market?
Nightingale is a US-based drone company providing security surveillance 24/7.
Started in 2014, it is still a loss-making start-up with revenues of less than Australian $3 million.
However, it has customers in eight countries around the world, including Australia. It believes it is at a "tipping point, with a strong pipeline of commercial opportunities".
Back in August, it launched the initial public offer to raise $8-$10 million for expansion, offering CDIs (the equivalent of shares) at 35c each, with a free option with every three CDIs.
The price has now been slashed to 22c, and there will be a free option with every two CDIs.
It now hopes to raise only $5-$6 million.
The moral of the story is that any investment is only worth what people are prepared to pay for it, and even the best brains in the financial industry can't tell with any certainty what that price will be.
If Nightingale were worth 35c in September, it should be a bargain now at 22c. Maybe.
The Punter will not be subscribing, partly because of the market, partly because drones fly in a highly competitive space.
- The Punter has no financial qualifications and no links to the financial services industry. He owns shares in a number of companies featured in this column.
