Most models that look at the Indian Ocean forecast a trend towards a weakly negative IOD during the second half of winter.
Good crop growth in autumn and stored moisture reserves mean southern Australia could achieve average yields even with below average rain.
Some international forecast models suggest that the Pacific Ocean will continue to trend towards La Nina during the rest of Australia's winter and early spring.
The surprising early consensus by climate models that we were in for a wet winter have disappeared with all possibilities now on the table.
There's the chance of solid rainfall in Queensland and WA over the next eight days which will be a big boost to national crop prospects.
A large high pressure system across southeastern Australia will bring clearer skies, but cold and frosty nights.
There has been a small wind-back of last month's optimism, but the BOM is still forecasting a wet winter, especially in the MDB.
While most of NSW is currently experiencing fairly benign weather underneath a high pressure system, more active weather is on its way.