ONE of the wettest starts to spring continued to roll on last week with widespread rain through the starts major grain growing regions.
Much of northern NSW was inundated with 65 millimetres to 100mm of rain in the past week, on top of already wet conditions.
Mungindi, on the Queensland boarder received close to 100mm of rain.
But falls of more than 70mm or more were common through the north west including Moree, Garah, Bellata and Quirindi.
Most of the north west has already received three to four times their normal September rainfall with more rain forecast.
Crops are handling the excess rainfall well, but farmers are concerned they will deteriorate if the excessive wet weather was to continue.
Thankfully, rainfall totals were lighter in the central west and southern areas of the state where farmers were already saturated following steady rain a week earlier.
Nonetheless, the central west received a further 20mm to 30mm of rain last week with 20mm to 45mm in the southern slopes and Riverina.
Some crops in low lying areas have already been flooded with the big wet where water has pooled.
But the benefits by far outweigh the loss.
The rain has replenished dry subsoils and on farm dams have been filled.
Also, most of the major water storages across the state are now at capacity which is good news for irrigators and the towns that rely on them.
By in large, most of the winter crops are sitting on excellent yield potential.
Some farmers are saying their crops in the far north of the state, along the Queensland boarder are as good as last year when many recorded their best yields ever.
Some are even saying that crops are as good as they were in 2010, which was the state’s largest ever wheat harvest.
This was reflected ABARES crop forecasts released last week.
ABARES raised its estimate of this year’s Australian wheat crop to 28.1 million tonnes, which is now in line with market estimates.
The ABARES estimate reflects the second largest crop on record, falling a bit below the record 29.6 million tonnes crop in 2011-12.
The NSW 2016-17 wheat crop was forecast at 7.95 million tonnes.
If achieved, this would be the largest crop since 2011-12 of 8.5 million tonnes.
NSW canola production was projected at 920,000 tonnes and barley at 1.93 million tonnes.
While the production outlook is looking promising, depressed global grain markets remain a challenge.
The USDA released its latest monthly world supply and demand report last week which flagged further increases in world grain supplies.
Wheat production in the major exporting countries was modestly higher on last month, but overall production is sharply up on last year.
But while the world is awash with wheat, traders are becoming more concerned with supplies of good quality milling wheat.
Concerns over the quality of Canada’s wheat crop were mildly supportive values last week as wet weather plagues their harvest.
Above average rainfall during the Canadian growing season has resulted in bumper yields, but now is jeopardising grain quality.
A lower quality Canadian wheat crop would boost demand for countries holding good quality wheat.
Europe has also had a poor quality wheat harvest this season.
The jury is still out of the quality of the Australian wheat crop but the favourable growing season and expected bumper yields is raising the chances of lower than normal protein levels.
New crop Australoian Premium White(APW) multi grade wheat prices jumped by $7/t to $237/t Newcastle port last week, helped by the spate of recent reported export sales into Asia.
Port Kembla was $5/t higher at $232/t.
New crop canola was unchanged at $526/t port.
