AT the time of penning this article it is pleasing to see the sun shining.
With the prospect of another 25 to 50 millimetres of rain and even snow for the Tablelands this week, our thoughts are with the communities and farmers along the Lachlan River from Forbes to Condobolin and other parts of NSW that are suffering from the recent wet run.
Following last week’s grower meetings harvest logistics seem to be front of mind for most growers.
The likelihood of saturated paddocks struggling to be dry enough in time for heavy machinery come harvest has growers working on contingency plans to mitigate potential harvest delays and more wet weather.
The harvest logistics are not the only challenge on the horizon for growers with marketing for the coming season having its own complexities given the current flat price and 12 month outlook.
Pools have attracted a lot of interest and growers remain eager to explore alternate strategies to diversify their marketing strategy.
Domestic values have seen a slight lift in the past few weeks with a lack of grower selling and a small rally in Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures.
CBOT December wheat futures started the month at about US380 cents a bushel and will start this week back above the US400c/bu level.
The resilience of Australian basis, assuming no harvest quality issues, will surely be tested with current cash basis at $33 a tonne.
However, the crop is not in the bin yet and until there is a decent run at harvest, the grower appears likely to remain on the sideline from a marketing viewpoint.
There has been plenty of chatter that the grower will try and carry grain for as long as he or she can this season in the hope of better bids later in the year. But this strategy does not appear to be foolproof either.
If we do manage to produce the expected ABARE figures and don’t hit export targets in the first half of the year we will struggle to get to the lofty levels needed to ensure carryout is not massive in 2018. And that’s also assuming the northern hemisphere has a normal crop to compete against in the back end of 2017.
Internationally, the Egyptian central buying agency (known as GASC) finally relaxed its stance on ergot and bought a further handful of cargos last week albeit at $US5/t to $US10/t premium to where they had been buying prior to their zero ergot stance.
US fall crop harvest is expected to increase momentum for the week ahead with corn harvest pushing towards 20 per cent and beans 10pc completed.
And in breaking news to end last week the Indian Government has finally reduced its import tax to 10pc from 25pc to curb food inflation in the country, which many had thought may have come earlier in the year and been supportive for old crop wheat values.
However it is still a positive story for Australian new crop values and export outlook.
