SOI sits at 'wetter' end of neutral

This is within the neutral range of -7 to +7, but towards the “wetter” end, which is interesting. 

If maintained through spring, it could provide a little optimism for those looking for rain. 

The same applies to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which is also about the middle of the neutral range, but it too, is very slightly positive. 

If this is maintained, it is a better sign than having it negative. 

In the past week, places in the Top End of the country have experienced temperatures at or near record levels for August. In previous years, high temperatures early in the season has often led to a slightly earlier development of the “wet” season, but this link remains a bit speculative. 

Sea surface temperatures remain above normal over waters east of Australia which is also a positive sign for those looking for rain. 

Finally, the south-eastern trades in the tropical western Pacific are slightly stronger than average – something more likely to occur in La Nina years than El Nino ones. 

All these features provide some cause for caution optimism for the coming months although most models still indicated the chances of a drier than normal spring remain slightly better than for a wetter than normal season. 

However, reliability of models is also lower in neutral years, and is especially the case when the neutral patterns have dominated for some time already. 

A few things are a little more likely. These include above average temperatures which are expected through most of spring and at least early summer. 

Also the potential for severe storms is a little higher than in an average year, especially near the ranges and over the north-east of the state. 

Also, the chances of late season frost is also a little higher than normal, despite the fact that daytime maximum temperatures will be warmer than average. 

Finally, the chance of a significant one off event is also higher than in an average year and this feature could save some regions from a dry spring.