THE bulk of harvest is all but complete here in the Central West with a mad rush to get cereals finished before the rain hit late last week.
Some areas were reported to get up to 100 millimetres so a good thing for most that the grain is in the bin.
Further south, where a few crops are still standing, test weight will be a bit lighter, but unlikely to have any dramatic effect to grades as test weight this year has been very good.
With the mayhem of harvest mostly over, growers have started to sell some bigger chunks of grain to get some cash flowing before they make a decision on their strategy post the Christmas break and warehousing charges get closer.
As a result local cash markets have edged lower with traders taking a bit of a breather.
The market has been soaking up much of the grower selling until now with exporters looking to get January export commitments filled and moved to port given logistics are tight, an issue that we haven’t seen for a few years.
Chicago Futures have traded a narrow range recently with not a great deal of news to push the market around heading into Christmas.
The removal of the 10 per cent Indian Import Duty has been a bit of a fizzer so far with Indian domestic markets falling more than export markets rising.
Reports of winterkill concerns for the US winter wheat crop have surfaced which is a usual story at this time most years.
Some sources are suggesting that up to 20pc of the crop could have insufficient snow cover with freezing temperatures being recorded.
This may give Chicago Futures some support but with the amount of wheat expected to be carried into next year, it is unlikely to be a big enough of a story on its own to see any sizeable pop.
The stronger US dollar has pressured futures as the US will need to remain competitive in the export market to keep moving the glut.
Wheat and corn sales out of the US have been above expectations to date which has keep markets relatively supported.
Grower selling is likely to determine the strength of the market going forward, particularly Australian Standard White (ASW) as the domestic market won’t buy the large crop in a short period.
Australia will be relying on Asia to get through the big chunk of ASW that is weighing on domestic markets.
China as always is a big unknown, and growers should be crossing their fingers that they come to the market sooner rather than later.
