WITH winter sowing basically complete across central and western NSW and some very handy rainfall recently to boot, a focus should now turn to commencing the 2014-15 season grain marketing if you have not already.
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As many growers finished sowing the winter crop grain prices remain strong in a global market that fundamentally had no major concerns about crops heading into harvest.
At the same time, most areas of Australia especially the major export States of SA and WA were planting on moisture.
It felt as if the volatility and unrest between the Ukrainians and Russians didn't affect supply of commodities from the region, but then the market reacted and we have definitely seen a change in recent weeks.
Values of $330 to $340 a tonne Newcastle track for wheat have now slipped to less than $300/t.
The market does give the impression that at this stage without any major disruption in supply around the world prices will continue to slide on both cereals and oilseeds.
There have been some corrections in prices when demand kicks in at these lower levels.
However, once this subsides and supply remains available across the majority of export origins and no other bullish news exists, then I would expect the former to continue.
There does remain some bullishness locally due to the continued dry in the north of NSW and Queensland.
It does feel a bit like Groundhog Day as the seriously dry areas from last season remain particularly dry this year.
I believe the market learnt quite a bit last year when handling supply into the northern feed markets and will be much better rehearsed this time around.
Damien Manson is an AWB farm marketer at Dubbo.