FUNDAMENTAL factors for the NSW cattle market remain remarkably robust, but conditions across the State vary as the autumn break hits the south with full force but remains elusive in the north.
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Bob Jamieson Agencies director Bob Jamieson, Inverell, said predictions of continuing dry conditions, with the prospect of an El Niño looming, had eroded farmers' confidence in the market.
However, the cattle market's vital signs remained robust, Mr Jamieson said, and the current situation had been compounded by the impact of the previous year's big dry.
"People are panicking about the prospect of a four- to six-month dry, but we are telling clients the essentials of the market are very strong," he said.
"From an export perspective the market conditions are set up for the cattle market to be extraordinary.
"It's not happening because there is too much supply, caused by the prospect of falling into a dry with forecasts of an El Niño.
"There is a world shortage of beef and there are markets screaming for our beef. China is the obvious one as well as the US demand for high quality grass-fed beef.
"Specialist markets are now paying an absolute premium and prices are extraordinary if you can go to the effort to produce the specialty product to meet those premium markets."
Heading south from Inverell to Coonamble, AFJ Brien co-director Peter O'Connor said this year's conditions were a welcome improvement on last year.
Traditionally, producers would look to reduce stock during winter, but the potential for growing demand to push prices even higher may have caused them to resist the urge to sell, for the time being.
"If we don't get more rain people might think the market has levelled off and they will start selling again."
Elders southern NSW livestock sales manager Peter Cox, Wagga Wagga, said farmers in his area were in a better position now than at the same time last year, with quality cattle across the district.
"Many people are discussing just when the last autumn break was," Mr Cox said.
"Right now, the boost from the break would be closer to a one-in-50, rather than a one-in-10-year benefit.
"The quality on the South West slopes and parts of the Riverina is significant.
"Cattle will enter (saleyards) in that area in very good order and will boost the supply for processors."
The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI), while falling over the past few weeks, is still considerably higher than it was at this time last year.
On Tuesday night it stood at 328.5 cents a kilogram, a drop of 25.75c/kg in the past month.
Yet this time a year ago the EYCI stood at just 289c/kg.
Mike Foley
Senior journalist for The Land.
Senior journalist for The Land.
