ALTHOUGH a neutral pattern in the sea surface temperature patterns across the Pacific is likely to persist for another couple of months, the chances are fairly strong that an El Niño will develop during the year.
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The timing of the onset of the El Niño is now the critical issue - it appears slightly more likely that it may be delayed a little but most models indicate that it will be in place by the end of winter or early spring at the latest.
Although many El Niño years in Australia are characterised by lower than average rainfalls and higher than average temperatures it must be remembered that its greatest effects are both seasonal and regional.
In the past, there has been minimal effect on rainfall patterns in NSW in winter months and also minimal effect in coastal parts at all and in the south.
Its effects on rainfall have been greatest in spring and summer and it is at these times when its effects on temperature have been the most.
El Niño years have traditionally been hot ones.
Australia has just come through two of its hottest summers ever in non-El Niño years, but with its likely development, the chances of hot weather again next spring and summer seems pretty good.
El Niños developing in winter are not common but when this has occurred, many of the preceding autumns have been quite wet and this looks like being the case again in 2014.
Rainfall events are likely to push total rainfall in the coming months to at least average in most of NSW and an average winter seems likely as well, so if the El Niño is to develop as indicated, it is unlikely to have any effect on our weather for at least another six to seven months.
The absence of cold changes has been a feature on autumn to date, but this is likely to change in a few weeks, allowing for increased variability in temperature as we head towards winter.
Contact Don White, Weatherwatch, (02) 9451 7102 or fax (02) 9975 1608.
