ALL eyes are on the weather.
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This week we will be watching the clouds and hoping the rain that is forecast - 50 to 100 millimetres for the east coast - occurs and ends the long dry spell we are experiencing.
The dry conditions in Australia are helping to hold up new crop prices, in particular on the east coast in Queensland and northern NSW where the dry is most extreme.
Southern NSW in areas have already seen some good rainfall enough to make a start on planting earlier varieties of wheat or barley, but still we need more to consider it the break to the season.
The wheat market has been moving upwards since January, largely due to the continued dry conditions on the east coast.
The market is now watching the weather in the northern hemisphere closely and will continue to do so for the next four to six weeks in the US.
It is now the key growing period and there is concern in some of the areas of the US Hard Red Winter (HRW) belt as the need for rain is critical.
There is also concern some areas in Kansas have been affected by winter kill.
These uncertainties are being factored into the market as yield forecasts are reduced.
Other influences affecting the market today is the political uncertainty that remains in the Ukraine.
The chances of Ukraine being cut off from exporting grain is low, but while the risk remains the market will take this into consideration and remain cautious.
The crops in the Black Sea and Europe still have a long way to go before they are home, for the next six to eight weeks these markets will remain volatile until production is more certain.
Two things to keep in mind and could have a big influence in the wheat market are India, which has the potential to export wheat and can then reduce the reliance on other origins, and China's import program which can result in big swings in demand.
Early indications are the Chinese crop is in great shape and may result in lower imports thus a heavier carryout globally, but this is not confirmed.
If wheat remains above $300 a tonne (free on board) levels it is more likely the Chinese will reduce imports versus increase, and a rising market is also more likely to result in a sizable Indian export program, but both are unknown at this stage.
Chela Lamond is an AWB farm marketer at Wagga Wagga.