HOT, dry weather in recent months has taken a heavy toll on early sorghum yields throughout northern NSW.
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Crops that had the potential to exceed three-and-a-half tonnes a hectare in November are struggling to reach 1.5t/ha.
Quality is also a problem with most of the early sorghum suffering from high screenings and low test weight which is pushing it into sorghum 2 which is incurring a price discount of about $25/t.
Time is running out for the later sorghum crops.
Crops are hanging on but poor January rainfall combined with scorching hot temperatures has some crops starting to exhibit the dreaded pineapply look.
Some growers are being forced to wash out earlier sorghum sales as production prospects slide.
Summer rainfall which is normally the lifeblood of the northern areas of the state has been scarce.
Moree only recorded 21 millimetres of rain in the past month, which is its lowest January rainfall in a decade, while Gunnedah failed to record any rain for the month.
Ex-tropical cyclone Dylan dumped 50mm to 125mm of rain across Central Queensland last week is expected to see the bulk of the sorghum planted in the area.
The area produces about 300,000t of sorghum in a good year but this crop won't be harvested until June.
It was just as dry in the south of the State but the lack of rain at this time of the year is not a concern for grain growers.
However, dry feed supplies are also running out with the dry weather the northern and southern tablelands.
Farmers are cutting back on livestock numbers amid the poor feed outlook but on farm feeding is also on the increase.
Some growers in the Southern Tablelands are already being forced to supplementary feed grain.
Local grain prices are being supported by the dry conditions through northern NSW and Queensland but international values continue to trend lower.
This year's record large world wheat crop is casting a shadow over the price outlook for local values.
Last week the International Grains Council (IGC) raised its estimate of the 2013-14 world wheat crop to a record large 707 million tonnes following upward revisions for Australia, Canada, China and Russia.
Australia's wheat crop was raised by 1.2mt on the IGC's previous estimates and will exceed last year's crop by 17 per cent has bigger crops in Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria more than offset decreases in Queensland and NSW according to the report.
IGC raised its forecast of world wheat imports by five million tonnes to a record large 147mt as importers take advantage of cheaper prices.
However world wheat stocks are expected to rise by seven million tonnes to 188mt for the 2013-14 year.
In its first stab at the 2014-15 world wheat crop numbers, IGC said that the world wheat harvested area is expected to increase by 2pc over this year.
They said conditions in the northern hemisphere winter wheat crop were generally favourable but said there was some winter kill risk.
IGC tentatively pegged 2014-15 world wheat production tentatively at 697mt on a return to average yields which would still make it the second largest crop and just 1.4pc less than this year's record large crop.
Expectations of another large world wheat crop for 2014-15 and the lack of perceived weather threats are also weighing on new crop prices.
Last week benchmark US wheat futures slipped to new 3.5 year lows amid the abundance of global supplies.
Cheap prices are triggering strong demand but prices continue to grind lower.
Local prices remain well supported by the drought problems in the north as well as a lack of farmer selling amid the dry weather.
Northern sorghum jumped by $13/t to $350/t Newcastle aided by grower washouts.
Canola jumped by $25/t to $530/t delivered Newcastle on the back of strong international demand.