![Peter Knight, "Coolamon", Coonabarabran, with mixed aged Devon cows that will start calving this month. Peter Knight, "Coolamon", Coonabarabran, with mixed aged Devon cows that will start calving this month.](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/silverstone-agfeed/2057201.jpg/r0_0_1024_681_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
RAIN forecasts can be hit and miss, but when your livelihood depends on them, near enough isn't good enough.
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That is the view of Peter Knight at "Coolamon", Coonabarabran.
"It is a massive problem," Mr Knight said.
"We probably should have destocked earlier, but with rain forecast (in January), we held on for a little longer."
Mr Knight was angry whenever the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) got a forecast "just so bloody wrong".
Further west in Coonamble, Simon Fagan from "Leeholme", said BoM's longer range forecasts were just as vital.
"For our area a lot of people did plant crops last year when BoM was saying there was a 70 to 80 per cent chance of rain for late spring," he said.
"That forecast failed farmers.
"Based on information that was completely wrong, we spent a lot of money putting crops in."
BoM's acting regional director for NSW and ACT, Stephen Lellyett, said he sympathised with farmers and producers who relied on forecasts, however for that particular spring forecast, it was not only BoM, but at least eight other modelling systems that forecast good chances of rain.
Then, in September, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions broke down rapidly, along with an anomaly in the Pacific Ocean temperatures, which led to the chances of rain decreasing rapidly.
"It was quite abnormal," he said.
Mr Lellyett said the short-term rain forecasts for late January predicted widespread rainfall across NSW, which turned out to be accurate, however, a band of country including Tamworth, Coonamble and Coonabarabran missed out.