RECENT rain across central and southern NSW has provided the ideal start to the season, allowing farmers to make big strides into their 2016 winter crop plantings.
Many farmers in the south west and Central West of the state have already seeded the majority of this year’s crop.
Growers expect to have the bulk of the state’s grain, legume and canola crops to be planted by the end of the month while activity in the later areas will extend into June.
Growers in the north of the state are still looking for more rain in order to advance plantings.
A significant amount the crop is already dry seeded but farmers are waiting for rain to seed the remainder, as they attempt to spread their spread their risks.
Earlier planted crops near the Queensland border, which were seeded on localised rain, have emerged but the broader North West region is still looking for soaking rain to get the rest of the crop in the ground.
It’s a similar situation for most of southern Queensland where Darling Downs farmers are still waiting for a general break to the season.
Northern NSW grain prices continued to strengthen last week as traders becoming increasingly nervous with the lateness of the seasonal break.
Newcastle grain prices jumped by $10 to $15 a tonne last week as traders lifted their buying ideas to entice some increases in farmer selling.
However farmers are showing limited selling interest as they hold onto old crop supplies until weather conditions for the 2016 season improve.
APW prices into Newcastle jumped by $15 to $275 last week while sorghum was $13 higher at $238.
However grain prices in southern NSW, where farmers have enjoyed a good start to the season, were more subdued.
Exporter bids for APW into Port Kembla were $5 higher for the week at $248.
But despite last week’s firmer tone to local grain prices, international inputs remain gloomy.
The USDA released its first estimates for the 2016-17 world wheat crop, which provided sobering reading.
World wheat production for 2016-17 was forecast at 727 million tonnes, only slightly lower than last year’s record large harvest of 734 million tonnes but sharply higher than private forecasts offered in prior months.
Improved weather conditions through Europe, Russia, Ukraine and the United States have all boosted wheat production outlooks in these key exporting countries over the past eight weeks, the USDA report read.
Even more alarming is the USDA forecast that world wheat ending stocks for 2016-17 would grow by a further 14 million tonnes to a record large 257 million tonnes.
Weather conditions over the next three to four weeks through Europe, the Black Sea and North American winter wheat yields.
Crops through these areas are just coming into head, but current conditions remain favourable.
USDA is forecasting record large European Union and Russian wheat exports
in 2016-17, on the back of their expected bumper harvests.
Although there is still time for a late production hiccup in the northern hemisphere wheat crop, the latest forecasts paint a depressing outlook for the world wheat market for 2016 and extending into next year.
Exporters are already struggling to place Australian wheat into overseas markets.
Abundance of global supplies and cheap ocean freight rates is allowing the likes of Europe and Black Sea countries to push further core Australian wheat destinations, such as South East Asia.
Another round of bumper wheat crops in the key exporting countries suggests these conditions may continue.
However, world canola inputs were more supportive.
International soybean prices moved sharply higher last week after the USDA projected smaller than expected US supplies, largely as a result of recent flooding in Argentina.
The USDA also projected a sharp decline in Canadian canola supplies in the coming 12 months as farmers seed more legumes at the expense of canola.