CHICKPEA prices have been bucking the recent trend of the broader grain market, by softening in recent weeks.
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Old crop chickpea bids into Brisbane fell by $40 a tonnes last week to $970/t, now down by about $150/t in the past month.
New crop bids have also slipped to $890/t for delivery by October and $820/t for delivery by November.
Exporters are reporting an absence of overseas buying interest for Australian pulses with Indian buyers now sitting relatively comfortable following a good local harvest and massive imports in recent months.
Weakness in the pulse markets is in stark contrast to local grain prices which have rallied by $30/t to $50/t during the past month.
The upward momentum in grain prices continued last week, with weather forecast offering no reprieve for farmers who are desperate for rain.
New crop Australian Premium White (APW) multi grade bids into Queensland and NSW were $10/t to $15/t higher in the past week.
New crop APW into Brisbane in now above $300/t for the first time in more than two years, while south eastern Australian ports are reflecting a $270/t to $275/t range.
Old crop prices in northern NSW continued to climb as well as buyers struggled to find sellers amid the deteriorating outlook for the 2017 grain harvest.
Large areas of north west NSW, stretching from Dubbo to Nyngan and northwards through Coonamble, Walgett to Mungindi on the Queensland boarder are desperate for rain to save those crops that have been seeded.
Some farmers in these parts didn’t even record enough rain to seed all their intended area.
Crops to the north and south, that have enjoyed better rainfall during May, are still looking relatively good but are looking for more rain following a dry June.
After a month where high pressure systems have dominated central Australia which has driven weather patterns across the major grain production zone, a cold front and trough is expected to bring some unsettled weather to parts of Queensland and NSW this week.
At this stage, the front isn’t expected to have much rain associated with it, with the heaviest rain likely to fall on the coast.
Nonetheless, the unsettled weather still represents the best chance of rain in several weeks for southern Queensland and northern NSW, where crops are struggling with dry winter weather.
Last week the Bureau of Meteorology cancelled its El Nino watch, saying climatic models are pointing to a neutral outlook for the rest of 2017.
They said cooling sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean have eased the threat of an El Nino.
However, this appears to have little impact on Australian weather conditions where most of the cropping zones are struggling with the dry winter.
Traditional wisdom has been that dry seasons have been associated with El Nino weather patterns and the wetter seasons are liked to La Nina events.
Although, it seems more of the weather is being driven by weather patterns stemming from the Indian Ocean.
While models have steadily eased back the likelihood of El Nino, most models still indicate an increased chance of warmer and drier than average conditions for Australia during the rest of winter.
The Bureau said that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral, but some models are predicting it will turn positive later in 2017.
They said a positive IOD typically brings below average winter–spring rainfall to parts of southern and central Australia.
Last year Australia produced its largest ever grain harvest after the IOD fell to record lows in the middle of 2016.
