The wait is on for rain

Everything is ready to go for the 2018 plant, except for the key ingredient – rain.

As the calendar rolls through April, without the rain, cropping plans will start to adjust accordingly mixed farmers will drop early grazing crop and instead change to either more traditional winter varieties or, in the drier areas of the state, consider the possibility of leaving country fallow.

ABARES forecasted the 2018 Australian Wheat planted area to be relatively unchanged year on year, while barley planted area is forecast to be up three per cent with much stronger prices year on year.

On the canola front, ABARES has forecast planted area up 8pc year on year on the back of lower global wheat and pulse prices.

The forecast for a further increase in canola plantings following a strong plant in 2017 in my opinion is interesting.

Given the much lower moisture profiles on the east coast and poor yields from last season, it’s tough to see any increase year on year at this stage.

It will be interesting to see where pulse plantings end up however, in particular chickpea plantings following reduced prices and a cloudy market outlook.

Grower sentiment in the Central West suggests that barley plantings will be much stronger year on year, taking the place of canola and chickpeas to some extent.

In the northern hemisphere it appears that the trend of higher planted area to oilseeds, rather than grains will continue, with the USDA forecasting US farmers will plant a larger area of soybeans than corn for a second year in a row.

While in Canada, area planted to canola is forecast to increase again, setting a new record above the previous 2017 record.

Despite a lower price outlook for canola, Canadian farmers are expected to continue to increase canola area following strong returns in 2017 and a poor price outlook for peas and lentils following increased Indian tariffs.