Concerns over the 2018 winter crop are becoming more desperate as every week passes.
At the start of winter few New South Wales farmers had received sufficient rainfall to germinate autumn sown crops.
Significantly below average seasonal rainfall has made for a troubling start to the 2018 cropping year, however some parts of southern New South Wales saw improved falls during the month of May.
The southern slopes received beneficial rain in May with Grenfell, Young and Harden areas receiving 45mm to 55mm for the month. Rainfall amounts tapered away to 25mm to 35mm in the Temora, Wagga Wagga, Narrandera and West Wyalong areas and decreased to 15mm to 20mm in the Griffith and Griffith areas.
Rainfall totals were generally lighter in the central west. Nyngan and Trangie recorded 10mm to 15mm for the month and they were slightly higher around Condobolin and Lake Cargelligo. Parkes registered 25mm in May.
The situation is most desperate in the northern half of the state which saw little to no rain in May.
Chances of achieving average yields have all but gone after the dry autumn but record high grain prices will help to offset smaller crops.
Optimal planting windows for most of the winter crops have either closed or are in the final fortnight, with no sign of rain on the horizon.
Strategies of what to plant and acceptable yields are also altering as the dry weather continues.
Prospects of consecutive poor winter crops in Queensland and northern New South Wales has propelled northern grain markets to record levels as feedlots and other intensive feed industries contemplate another season with high grain prices.
Chances of achieving average yields have all but gone after the dry autumn but record high grain prices will help to offset smaller crops.
Old crop stock feed wheat into the Darlings Downs is demanding $400 delivered while the new crop bids are at $380 a tonne.
Farmers are also altering what crops they will plant when rain finally arrives.
Barley will be the big winner as its the preferred feed grain for most feedlots but is viewed as more agronomically flexible than wheat and better suited to handle a shorter growing season.
Even with rain in the next few weeks, canola plantings are now expected to be sharply below early estimates as farmers opt for crops that are better suited to a late season.
It’s quickly turning into a nightmare scenario for the domestic oilseed industry where crushers are contemplating the possibility the canola harvest may fall well below the annual demand.
Most farmers are saying they are prepared to plant barley and wheat into July with sufficient rain but intended plantings are likely to be down because of the season.
The latest monthly update by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology of its extended seasonal outlook for winter made for gloomy reading.
Drier than normal weather is likely continue across most of eastern Australia following the dry autumn, the Bureau said.
Other global weather agencies, such as the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, are talking of the possibility of an El Nino developing in the late winter, although the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is saying these broad scale climate influences are currently neutral.
