Wheat production forecasts diminishing

Australia’s government commodity forecaster ABARES issued its June crop report where it pegged the national 2018 winter grain crop at 37.7 million tonnes which is close to unchanged on last year’s 37.8 million tonnes harvest.

NSW recorded its warmest autumn on record while the May rainfall was the lowest in 20 years in many cropping areas, ABARE said.

The combination of poor autumn rainfall in the northern cropping zones, above average temperatures had resulted in a sharp deterioration in the northern soil moisture reserves and is eroding the outlook for a successful winter crop.

National wheat production is expected to increase by three per cent from 2017 levels to 21.9 million tonnes, according to the report.

Barley output was projected to climb to 9.2 million tonnes, aided by an expected 10pc increase in forecast barley plantings.

ABARES forecast that Australia’s chickpea plantings would plummet by 53pc to 528,000 hectares in 2018 resulting in a sharply lower harvest of 616,000 tonnes down from around one million tonnes in 2017.

NSW wheat plantings are forecast to fall to by 10pc to 2.8 million hectares.

Although wheat can be planted until the end of June in much of the state, rainfall in the coming weeks will be critical if these plantings intentions are to be realises, they said.

ABARES said state wheat yields are forecast to be 10pc below average but this assumes sufficient rainfall in June.

State wheat production for 2018 was forecast at 5.3 million tonnes.

Barley plantings for NSW were forecast to increase by 8pc to 850,000 hectares reflecting the dry start to the strong feed grain markets.

The area planted to canola is forecast to fall by 23pc in 2018 to 500,000 hectares amid the dry start to the season and last year’s low prices.

Chickpea plantings were forecast to plummet by 53pc to about 215,000 hectares

Expectations that the dry weather through Queensland and northern NSW is likely to continue into spring is also working against northern winter crops. 

In its latest climate outlook for the next three months the Bureau of Meteorology said the drier than normal pattern prevailing across eastern Australia is likely to continue into July.

It said higher than average pressure systems to the south of Australia is resulting in fewer cold fronts from the Southern Ocean and less rain for much of the east coast.

Grain buyers ignored a sharp selloff in overseas markets last week after the Trump administration pressed ahead with plans to introduce $50 billion of tariffs on Chinese imports.

Northern grain markets remain well supported as the prospects for the 2018 crop outlook deteriorates.

Stockfeed wheat bids into the Darling Downs were $6/t higher last week to $405/t while feed barley was $5/t higher at $410/t. Sorghum prices also started to firm last week.