The sheep live export industry survived the hung federal parliament in 2018 by the skin of its teeth, but the odds are stacked against the trade beyond the federal election, which is due by May 2019.
Federal Agriculture Minister David Littleproud supports the industry and has helped push it into significant reforms aimed at improving its social licence.
But the Coalition lags in the polls and Labor has a real chance of forming government.
Most of the federal parliament’s independent and minor party MPs and Senators also want to end the industry.
Labor has already committed to ban exports in Northern Hemisphere summer when it forms government and phase the remainder of the industry out over the next five years.
In anticipation of an impending move against it in parliament, the Australian Live Export Council announced a voluntary three-month moratorium in sheep shipments to the Middle East during the Northern Hemisphere summer.
The industry has also committed to a raft of new regulations laid out in the government-commissioned Moss Review.
But that wasn’t enough to save it from a last-ditch push in parliament.
On the second last sitting day of the year, two rural independent crossbench MPs, Cathy McGowan and Bob Katter, blocked debate on a Greens Bill to ban sheep live exports.
The government is down on numbers following a string of defections and byelection defeats. Had debate gone ahead, it’s likely parliament would have voted to outlaw the industry.
It is understood Liberal MPs Sussan Ley and Sarah Henderson would have voted in favour of a ban had it come to that, even though they had sided with the government to block debate on the Bill.
Labor Agriculture spokesman Joel Fitzgibbon admits a there are no firm plans on how to support farmers and exporters through labor’s planned five-year phase-out of the trade.
But industry opponents will be emboldened by revelations that the industry failed to successfully act on the findings of a 2013 industry review of its social licence to operate, which came years before the controversies of this year.
