LATE September rain will be critical for NSW grain farmers to bring home the prospective massive winter grain crop.
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Late last week ABARES forecast the NSW 2020-21 winter crop harvest at a whopping 14.8 million tonnes with the national crop forecast at 47.9mt.
The forecast NSW winter crop harvest is on par with the 2010-11 harvest and second only to the 15.5mt reaped in 2016-17.
However, production estimates will suffer without immediate rain.
Northern farmers are already reporting that crops are suffering, and they have lost yield potential with the dry start to September.
Hopes of record wheat and barley yields in the north, which were real at the end of August, have faded with the dry start to September.
Northern farmers remain on track for well above average yields, although not as big as they were looking at in late August.
Crops have visibly suffered with more than a week of days in the high 20s.
Farmers are saying the big crops are already running out of stored moisture.
Southern New South Wales farmers remain on track for massive crops, but are anxious for rain to preserve the current potential.
Farmers are hopeful of showers later this week to freshen up crops.
Weather models are projecting 10-15 millimetres across most of the New South Wales cropping areas later this week.
Dry weather is also threatening production estimates in Western Australia.
The situation has become desperate in Western Australia, where farmers are saying they will run out of stored soil moisture in the next week or so.
New season's wheat is firmer with traders reporting export demand at current prices.
ASX east coast January wheat futures ended the week at $288, with cash bids for Melbourne, southern New South Wales and Western Australia up $3 to $7 for the week.
Global wheat markets remain well supported by strong export demand the large global production outlook.
The United States Department of Agriculture raised its forecasts for the 2020 season to a record large 770.5mt, up 4.4mt from last month.
USDA raised its forecast of Australia's wheat crop by 2.5mt to 28.5mt and Canada by 2mt to 36mt.
Australia's exporters are reporting healthy interest from Asian buyers in news season's wheat.
Export demand for barley remains tepid without China.
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