The threat of natural disasters like floods and bushfires is a key factor for more than two thirds of Australians in deciding whether to live in regional areas.
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Recent disastrous weather events along the east coast which saw the destruction of hundreds of homes only heightens their concerns.
But a key finding in research released this week is that the pandemic-inspired move from city to country is not showing any signs of slowing despite these recent events.
More than 7 out of 10 Australians "are open" to moving to regional areas, the report found.
Researchers from the University of South Australia, RMIT and UNSW Sydney examined migration flows and settlement patterns across Australia.
The research sought to identify key barriers to, and opportunities for, greater population decentralisation.
The research was commissioned by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute.
Between 2016 and 2066, the Australian population is expected to rise by almost 25 million.
About half that growth is expected to occur in the big two cities, Sydney and Melbourne.
The research report, "Understanding what attracts new residents to smaller cities", says having strategies to help disperse population growth could help alleviate some of the already existing pressures on major urban areas.
"Our research found that when it comes to having a preference to live in smaller cities, there are four groups of Australians," lead author Associate Professor Akshay Vij of the University of South Australia said.
- Those who prefer large cities (16 per cent of the population)
- Those who have a preference for smaller cities (21pc)
- Those who don't mind either way (54pc)
- Those who have a very strong preference for living in smaller cities (9pc)
Researchers said government policies to attract people to smaller regional cities would be best targeted at those middle two groups "as they appear more open to moving to a mid-sized city under the right circumstances".
The second group, with a preference for living in smaller cities, is made up of young individuals living in single or shared households and middle-aged individuals living in households with children.
They tend to be university-educated and employed full-time in high-wage managerial or professional jobs in white-collar sectors.
They place the greatest importance on employment and education opportunities and are likely to move to mid-sized cities if they could offer comparable opportunities.
The third group, who are more flexible with where they would live, are more likely to be older, and employed part-time in lower paying jobs or retired from the workforce.
They place a high importance on quality of life, quality of local healthcare, and housing and other living costs.
Another research report, released last week by Infrastructure Australia, identified available housing as the biggest infrastructure problem across regional Australia.
A shortage of all forms of housing, public and private, has only been made worse by the rush to the regions by city dwellers during the pandemic.
This was one of many challenges in growing the regions identified in a major report from Infrastructure Australia on Regional Strengths and Infrastructure Gaps.
For Australians moving to regional and rural cities, this week;s research report found four natural hazards are perceived to be the greatest threats:
- 72pc of people say extreme heat and bushfire
- 66pc floods and flash floods
- 62pc drought and water shortage
- 54pc pandemic impacts
More job and higher education opportunities plus better infrastructure can help drive new residents to the regions, the report found.
The report recommended a number of policy options to support the population shift.
Chief among them is a focus on the creation of local jobs (by offering appropriate incentives to employers to locate in these areas) and working with local communities to aid emerging local industries.
The report found the continued popularity of working-from-home during the pandemic offered new opportunities for encouraging settlement in mid-sized cities that offer better quality-of-life.
The report also found limited options for home ownership and rental in regional towns were frequently cited as a barrier to population growth.
The movement of people from city to country "has exacerbated the issue further" increasing demand for housing in regional cities, and causing housing prices to rise disproportionately more in these areas.
About one in two Australians would like to retire to "mid-sized cities" in the regions through healthcare guarantees, home ownership and access to other amenities.
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Chris McLennan
ACM national rural property writer based in Bacchus Marsh, Victoria. Career journalist. Multi award winner.
ACM national rural property writer based in Bacchus Marsh, Victoria. Career journalist. Multi award winner.
