La Nina will continue to make its presence felt during April, with widespread rain and thunderstorms on the cards for large areas of NSW in the next couple of weeks.
Over the last month or two, NSW has been stuck in a repetitive pattern of onshore winds feeding into slow-moving upper-level troughs.
This setup has resulted in frequent and heavy rain and flooding, along with landslides in some areas.
While some parts of the state missed out on heavy rain during March, many areas saw near or above average falls.
Some places even had their wettest March on record, including parts of the Northern Tablelands and the central and southern coast and ranges.
Last month's wet weather pattern has lingered into April, with areas of rain and thunderstorms likely to develop over the eastern half of the state each day for the rest of this week. Some of this week's rain is expected to cause more flooding on and east of the ranges, while storms in the west could also become severe at times.
There are already signs that another rain-bearing low pressure trough could cross NSW early to mid-next week as well.
While there is more uncertainty regarding this next system, several computer models suggest that it could deliver substantial rain to a large area of NSW, both inland and along the cost and ranges.
Anyone attending the Royal Easter Show in Sydney will need to be prepared for wet weather this Friday and Saturday and possibly in the middle of next week as well.
If you are travelling towards Sydney from the west or south this Thursday, be aware that a severe weather warning has been issued for heavy rain and landslides.
Looking beyond April, most long-range forecast models suggest that La Nina will break down in late autumn or early winter, allowing the Pacific Ocean to return to a neutral state (nether La Nina nor El Nino).
As a result, rainfall is expected to be closer to average in NSW during May.
- Ben Domensino, WeatherZone
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