ABS stats on beef herd rebuild: NSW robbed Queensland

The data also highlights just how much stock NSW has snavelled, particularly sheep from Western Australian and Victoria and cattle from Queensland.

International analyst Simon Quilty, Global Agritrends, described NSW as having 'begged, borrowed and stole stock from every other state'.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Agriculture Commodities data for the 2020/21 financial year shows the beef herd increased only four per cent to be 22 million head at the start of July and the flock was up 7pc to 68 million sheep and lambs on-farm.

The beef breakdown was 4.9m calves, up 5pc; 11.8m cows and heifers, up 6pc and 5.4m million other beef cattle, up 1pc.

The sheep breakdown was 22.6m marked lambs less than one year old, up 11pc; 37.6m breeding ewes, up 6pc and 7.8m other sheep, up 1pc.

NSW rebuilt to a far greater extent than any other state. It's cattle herd grew by 15.1pc and its flock by 21.3pc; and that clearly came at the expense of stock numbers in other states.

Many agents and industry leaders believe that phenomenon will deliver permanent change, with livestock producers in both WA and Queensland moving into other enterprises.

They also say new relationships have been formed that will likely create ongoing change, such as greater bos indicus content in NSW herds.

Mr Quilty agreed. He said estimates were that up to 500,000 head of cattle left western Queensland during the drought and were replaced by dorpers and goats.

That equates to a real structural shift in Queensland, a genuine rearrangement in terms of stocking, Mr Quilty said.

"Part of that shift is related to concerns about extreme temperatures," he said.

"It does beg the question will we ever see the Queensland herd rebuild to what it was."

In northern NSW, there was genuine concern about the ability to conserve fodder, highlighted by extreme liquidation during the drought, which was also delivering permanent change, he said.

Mr Quilty said NSW had been the hardest hit state during the 2018/19 drought, so its rebuild starting point was extremely low.

However, the data showed NSW robbed Queensland of cattle once the rains came, which meant that Queensland's herd rebuild was negative for two successive years, only this year returning to some normality, he said.

Meanwhile, during 2019/20 and 2020/21, 1.3 million head of sheep and lambs moved to the Eastern Seaboard from WA.

"This had a significant impact on liquidating the WA flock and also rebuilding NSW," Mr Quilty said.

"In some instances, displacement occurred where Victorian sheep and lambs were moving to NSW and being replaced by WA small livestock. Either way, NSW was able to rebuild quickly."

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The herd rebuild has been far from typical.

Mr Quilty said liquidation continued in Queensland and NSW even after the rain arrived, because cattle prices were 'too good to be true' and many farmers, with little income for several years, took advantage of the high cow prices and continued to sell.

Poor-performing cows were naturally very quickly offloaded.

"This delayed the rebuild by almost nine to 12 months," Mr Quilty said.

In the case of Victoria, it was an even slower start due to dairy offloading largely on the back of high feed costs.

The Victorian rebuild really only commenced in earnest in late 2021, Mr Quilty said.

"We are likely to see an extended herd rebuild period of three to five years, assuming there will be no severe droughts," he said.

"The flock rebuild has been underway for some time and is likely to continue for at least three to four years - slightly shorter than the herd.

"With a slower herd rebuild, the impact on cattle pricing will see a softer landing than with previous rebuilds as numbers build more gradually."