THERE will be a return to more normal rainfall patterns according to the latest Bureau of Meteorology summer outlooks.
The Bureau is predicting average rainfall across the majority of the country from January to March with slightly elevated chances of above average rain in parts of coastal and northern Queensland and a lower than average likelihood of exceeding average falls in central South Australia, centring on the Eyre Peninsula, where the odds are below 35 per cent.
Key drivers for this drop away from the record rainfall of the spring across much of eastern and southern Australia are shifts towards neutral conditions in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
The Bureau said the Indian Ocean Dipole had returned to a neutral phase after a long and strong IOD negative event, correlated with above average rainfall.
Along with this, the IOD typically does not extent a large influence on climate over summer months when the monsoon is in play.
In the Pacific Ocean conditions remain in excess of La Nina thresholds but are easing back towards neutral.
Bureau modelling suggests a return to neutral conditions in the Pacific in January or February.
During summer, La Nina typically increases the chance of above average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia, and the chance of cooler days and nights for north-east Australia.
The country has enjoyed generally dry conditions barring storms in the north over the past fortnight but there is still the potential for rain bands to form in coming weeks.
Sea surface temperatures have remained much warmer than average, with waters across the Coral Sea being warmest on record for November and spring.
Warmer Australian waters, especially in the tropics, can result in greater evaporation, humidity, cloudiness, and rainfall.
Waters in the Great Barrier Reef were warmest on record for November and second-warmest on record for spring, behind only 1998.
In terms of temperature the Bureau said January to March maximum temperatures are likely to be warmer than median for much of Australia away from eastern New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland.