You can make money in a drought in agriculture, but trust me, it is not easy.
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Shorting some of the listed ag companies at the first prediction of an El Nino is one strategy, trading water certainly worked for some.
But actually, putting something on the truck was pretty difficult for most of us.
The key to surviving a drought is a no-brainer..."make money when it rains"...having money in the bank is pretty important when it hits the fan.
This is a critical part of the equation that any review of drought resilience has to understand and acknowledge.
Of course, you must have a government that lets you keep the money made in a good year to cover the bad.
The productivity commission is currently reviewing the effectiveness of the Future Drought Fund; $100 million dollars per year is a significant amount of money, and spending it wisely would hopefully give agriculture some tools to navigate the next big dry.
But what should the tools be? How should it be spent? Who should decide?
The Future Drought Fund is being spent on a number of programs, including business development and leadership programs and, indeed, some research.
The programs have not really hit the road, and awareness is low.
I also must preface my comments with the fact that I have not participated in any of the courses as yet.
Like most farmers, I am pretty cynical about somebody telling me how to suck eggs with no direct accountability. I do like to be able to sack my consultants.
The architecture of the program has been a dog's breakfast from the start; completely disregarding the investment farmers make in the Local Land Service in NSW was and remains a monumental mistake.
Guess what! We have drought hubs.
Using the LLS network as just a program deliverer rather than the coordinator is unfortunate and will cause a dilution in the effectiveness of the spend in NSW....dumb, dumb, dumb.
So far as the content goes, I'm sure there are some gems in there, but the top down nature of the, "I'll tell you what you need to survive", is a fundamental floor in all socialised extension programs. It's one of the many reasons socialism doesn't work.
Every business has a different capacity, different challenges, and different solutions.
This is why many socialised group extension activities fail to hit the mark, or the participants struggle to put the advice in context for their business.
Unfortunately, its presence impedes the development of focused, useful advice that could drive productivity. It is a chicken and egg argument. Does socialised extension correct a market failure, or does it cause market failure?
Farmers all use private consultants, but the problem is that most accountants are only looking at the tax act...not a holistic business analysis.
However, if your accountant has missed something, it is wise and possible to get another one.
I suspect the extension effort will end up like some of the efforts out of the RDCs and universities - a room full of hobby farmers and retired farmers clapping politely and promising to change how they operate with their 15 chickens and a poddy calf.
- By James Jackson, sheep and cattle producer from Guyra and former veterinarian.
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