NSW 2023 vote: The Land's rolling coverage of the state election

While the official call is still to come for a number of seats, one trend out of tonight's numbers has been the ex-Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidates all holding their seats.

This includes Helen Dalton (Murray), Roy Butler (Barwon), and Phil Donato (Orange).

Along with the election going strongly Labor's way, the inability to regain these seats is a blow to the Nationals, which had high hopes for its 2023 candidates.

Phil Donato, who with Roy Butler, defected from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmer only recently after they couldn't remove leader Robert Borsak, has romped it in with 53pc of the primary so far.

With where the count is up to, Donato has actually increased his primary vote by almost 4pc which shows that going independent might suit him.

Roy Butler is currently sitting at 43.76pc of the primary vote, which is a big jump from 2019 when he won the seat on 32.96pc primary vote and just a 2.58pc margin.

Right now he's sitting a comfortable 16.72pc ahead of The nationals Annette Turner.

Helen Dalton is currently sitting on 48.76pc, a solid 23.48pc ahead of The Nationals' Peta Betts and a massive 10pc ahead of the primary vote on which she won in 2019, which overall shows voters in the bush are following the candidate rather than the party.

UPDATE: 9.30PM

Incumbent Nationals candidate for Tamworth Kevin Anderson will keep his seat, and serve the electorate for a fourth term.

First elected in 2011, the win means Mr Anderson could hold the position for up to 16 years, if he serves the entire four years of his new term.

He had picked up 49 per cent of the formal votes by 9:15pm on election night.

Read the full story here.

UPDATE 9.08PM

While the election is being called as a Labor win, a number of seats may still take a while to be decided.

Goulburn is one of those, with sitting member Wendy Tuckerman only holding a slight lead on Labor's Michael Pilbrow.

Tuckerman is on 39.53pc of the primary vote, and Pilbrow on 35.81pc.

In 2019, Tuckerman won Goulburn by a 9pc margin over Labor.

The 5-6pc swing towards Labor when compared to its vote in 2019 probably won't be enough, but the seat does still have 8.4pc of its vote to arrive via postal votes, for which we have to wait until Monday.

UPDATE 8.50PM

Every vote is going to matter in the Monaro, a seat with a history of being a tough battle ground.

Labor's Steve Whan may have the upper hand on incumbent, The Nationals Nichole Overall.

In the neck-and-neck race Mr Whan so far has 39pc of the primary vote, less than 2pc ahead of Ms Overall on 37.71pc.

Ms Overall won the seat last year in a by-election with 45.96pc of the primary vote ahead of Labor with 31.95pc, but it seems Labor isn't making the same mistakes twice with a swing so far of 7.1pc. A win here for Whan would help Labor secure a majority government, with it looking like 46 seats from a required 47 at this stage for Labor.

UPDATE 8.45PM

Labor has been returned to power in NSW for the first time in 12 years, leaving Tasmania with the only Coalition government in Australia.

The would-be premier Chris Minns was celebrating with the party faithful in his southern Sydney electorate of Kogarah on March 25 after just a nail-biting few hours of vote counting around the state.

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: 8.40PM

The Nationals look to be well and truly cementing their hold in traditionally strong seats, among them is the party's leader Paul Toole in the seat of Bathurst, who so far holds a commanding lead of 36.24pc, with 52.93pc of the primary vote, well ahead of Labor's Cameron Shaw on 16.69pc.

With only a relatively small proportion of the total vote to still come via postal votes, it will be near impossible for any of the other candidates to run down the enormous lead Mr Toole has kicked off with.

In a similar position is Cootamundra's The Nationals candidate and incumbent, Steph Cooke, who has clearly got the support of her constituents, most likely helped by a high-profile role this past few years as the Minister for Emergency Services and Resilience, and Minister for Flood Recovery.

She is well in front with 68.82pc of the primary vote.

Over at Coffs Harbour, incumbent Nationals Gurmesh Singh also looks well and truly on track to reclaim his seat.

While not as commanding a lead as Ms Cooke, he still has a comfortable 48.98pc of the primary vote.

The Liberal national Coalition are going to need every one of these seats if they are to hold back the red tide which appears to be swamping them right now from Labor, the Coalition trailing Labor by an estimated 16 seats.

Labor's MLC Mick Veitch will no doubt be on the edge of his seat too as he needs Labor to get at least 38pc of the Legislative Council votes to have a chance to get back in.

Labor is currently on 29.84pc with the Liberal/Nationals on 29.63pc.

With Labor well and truly in the lead and on track so far for a majority in the Lower House, it will need somebody with some agriculture know-how to fly the flag for the farmers and rural voters.

UPDATE: 8.20PM

Adam Marshall's fourth straight election win has seen him equal former MP's Richard Torbay and Ray Chappell.

The Nationals MP and the two former MPs in Northern Tablelands all won four straight elections in the seat.

Mr Chappell held the seat from a byelection in 1987 until 1999, when it was won by Mr Torbay, who held the seat until his resignation in 2013.

Read the full story here.

Meanwhile, Phil Donato has romped home to reelection for a third term in Orange with victory at the 2023 NSW election.

Mr Donato, who first won the seat in 2016, spoke to ACM as the predicted result rolled in.

Read the full story here.

UPDATE: 8PM

Former Shooters, Fishers and Farmers member turned independent, Helen Dalton, has got off to a commanding lead in the seat of Murray with 48.84pc of primary votes ahead of The Nationals' Peta Betts with 26.83pc.

The seat of Murray was among a number of seats where punters had considered The Nationals might have have a chance of winning back some ground.

In Barwon, the state's largest seat by area and also held by a former Shooters, Fishers and Farmers turned independent, Roy Butler, it's a similar story

Incumbent Roy Butler is holding his lead for now with 44.53pc of the primary vote, however, The Nationals challenger, the former Country Women's Association of NSW president, Annette Turner, is holding 32.44pc.

In 2019, Roy Butler knocked of the Nationals with a narrow margin of just 2.58pc, and 33pc of the primary vote, so with the lead he has so far on Ms Turner, he's looking fairly comfortable.

Barwon is one of a handful of seats which also has a relatively high number of postal votes still to be returned as a proportion of the total vote, at over 9pc so depending on how the margin holds out tonight, nobody should be writing off Ms Turner just yet.

Ms Dalton similarly won Murray on a 3.53pc margin over The Nationals in 2019, but with a strong lead so far and only 7.5pc of that seat's votes still to come in for the seat of Murray, we should have a better idea by later tonight of how she is situated. Although with a 22.01pc lead on Ms Betts, it's going to be hard for The Nationals turn the ship around from here.

EARLIER

The voting is done. Now, it's time for counting. The vote count kicked off at 6pm and now we wait to see who will be voted in. Follow all the action below.

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EARLIER TODAY

While today is the day most people will have their voices heard, a number of people have already voted in the 2023 NSW election.

Residents from right across the state voted early at pre-polls or used the postal vote system.

Those votes are being tallied ahead of the main vote count which is set to kick off from 6pm.

The below graph will update automatically as votes roll in.

It's election day.

And if you haven't already made your decision, here are some last minute views from around the state on what matters this election.

As much of the political grandstanding has been played out on a sporting field in western Sydney, many in regional and rural NSW want to make sure its voice is heard when it comes to decisions on policy that impacts every day life.

For Lachlan Gall from the the Pastoralists Association of West Darling, who lives in one of the most remote parts of the state, he says it's hard not to feel irrelevant when elections are won and lost in the big smoke.

"I understand that this election will be fought out across a swathe of seats in western Sydney, where many of the electorates are smaller than individual paddocks in pastoral country across far west NSW," Mr Gall said.

"Given the growing disconnect between urban voters and country NSW, at each election there is an increasing risk that the urban majority will elect parliamentarians that at best have no knowledge or interest in agriculture, and at worst work actively against our interests."

Nevertheless, Mr Gall says it feels like the overall result will be tight and the polls are suggesting that minority government is a distinct possibility.

Mr Gall said switched-on voters in the seat of Barwon were realising that returning Independent MP Roy Butler for a second term would be its best chance to stay on the government's radar regardless of the outcome.

"Certainly, the major parties have stumbled in the run-up to the election, and this hasn't gone unnoticed by voters," Mr Gall said.

"The National Party trashed the preselection process in the seat of Barwon, and the Labor Party machine gave their long serving Shadow Minister for Agriculture a very difficult position on the ballot paper from which to retain his seat in the Upper House," Mr Gall said.

"Such actions only serve to drive voters towards supporting minor parties and independents.

"It's going to be very interesting to see how everything pans out tonight, and potentially over subsequent days or weeks if the result is tight."

NSW Farmers CEO Pete Arkle said there had been a huge focus on western Sydney during the campaign with a lot of seats up for grabs and everyone predicting a pretty tight finish.

"But two-thirds of voters live outside of western Sydney and we've been out there asking where the commitments are for the rest of the state," Mr Arkle said.

"We know $1 out of every $7 in exports from NSW comes from agriculture, and a report from the Food and Agribusiness Growth Centre last year showed investing in value-adding could contribute an additional $50 billion to the economy by 2030, creating over 223,000 jobs in NSW.

"So we think agriculture has enormous opportunity to help the next state government get the economy pumping again."

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NSW Shadow Minister for Agriculture, Regional NSW and Western NSW Mick Veitch has had a tough job travelling around the country knowing that he might not event get a seat in the Upper House.

Labor did not pre-select Mr Veitch - the party's only representative who has any actual knowledge of the issues facing regional and rural NSW - at the ALP conference in October.

That means Labor needs to win government and they have to get enough primary votes so he can actually get elected at number nine on the Labor Upper House ticket.

Despite this Mr Veitch said this election was about choices and the fundamental choice the voters of NSW would have to make when they go to vote on what kind of NSW they want to live in.

"It's a choice about more of the same - running down our essential services and the people who work in them, and more privatisation of our essential assets," Mr Veitch said.

"Or a fresh start under Labor, prioritising the people who look after us, our paramedics, nurses, teachers, police officers and firefighters.

"We know that at the front of voters minds is the unsustainable pressure on our healthcare system, the chronic teacher shortage in our schools and the skyrocketing cost of living."

Labor's commitment

He said Labor had a plan to recruit 500 more regional and rural paramedics and legislate safe staffing levels in NSW hospital systems.

They want to 10,000 more permanent teachers and end the historic underfunding of the public schools with a $400 million future education fund.

He said Labor's energy relief plan would mean NSW households who were hit hardest by rising electricity prices would receive $250 directly off their energy bill, and small businesses would receive $315.

Regionally, he said his party knows that weeds and pests were now costing NSW farmers $2 billion annually, which was why they would direct $10 million to a good neighbour program to tackle weed and pest infestations on government land and appoint an independent Biosecurity Commissioner.

He said Labor planned to invest a record $59 million into Landcare and $724m for immediate action on regional and rural roads.

Labor's view on seats

Mr Veitch said Labor was proud to have fielded a candidate in every single electorate across NSW.

For the first time in the history of the seat last year, Dr Michael Holland was elected as the Labor Member for Bega.

"This message this sent is clear, Labor understands the fundamental issues facing regional NSW and we are ready to be their advocates on Macquarie Street," he said.

Next door in Monaro, former Labor Member Steve Whan is running as a candidate.

In Goulburn, he said Labor had put forward a plan to reopen Wakefield Park Raceway, and deliver water security by fixing Yass water, with its candidate Michael Pilbrow a strong advocate for his community.

In Lismore, he said Janelle Saffin was an unrivalled advocate for her community and was the best possible person to represent their interests in parliament while next door Craig Elliot is also fighting day in and day out for his community and every vote he can get.

"We aren't taking any vote for granted. Since World War Two Labor has only won from opposition twice so we know there is still a huge mountain for us to climb, but we are proud of our team and the work the have done for their communities and they work the will do if elected," Mr Veitch said.

How has the campaign been?

"This campaign has been unlike others I have seen, and I have seen a lot in my time. I do believe there is a sense that people are ready for change, whether that is reflected in the polls is a matter for the voters," Mr Veitch said.

"I have travelled to every corner of this state speaking to regional communities about what matters to them, and I am committed that if I am re elected to parliament in continuing that momentum and being unwavering advocate for the interests of our regional communities."

Agriculture Minister Dugald Saunders said farmers understood better than anyone, "that to grow, you need the right conditions".

"That's why today is so important not just for farmers but for everyone living in regional NSW," Mr Saunders said.

"With Australia facing economic headwinds and interest rates already on the rise, you need to have confidence the next State Government has a long-term economic plan and the ability to steer an economy through tough times."

The Nat's long-term plan for farming

Mr Saunders said that plan included cutting the red tape and creating the right conditions for NSW farmers to do what they do best - produce the world's best food and fibre.

He said that was why they were putting another $1 billion into the Farm Innovation Fund that will give farmers access to long-term low-interest loans of up to $2 million to invest in the things that will help position their business for the future.

"It's why we'll create a new one-stop shop to provide farmers with the advice, support and planning strategies to tap into the value of their natural capital and build new revenue streams," Mr Saunders said.

He said they had appointed agriculture commissioner Daryl Quinlivan to chair the farm practices panel to support industry in their right to farm and find quicker resolutions to land use conflict.

He added the Coalition were also investing in fee-free training to help grow the workforce the farm sector needs.

"It's why we have worked to protect farmers' right to farm," Mr Saunders said.

"It's why we've invested more than any other jurisdiction in biosecurity to help protect the industry against potential incursions of diseases like foot and mouth - and why we've invested in developing the vaccines we need for peace of mind for the future.

"There's always more to do and we will have a busy first 100 days back in government implementing all of our commitments to make sure agriculture remains prosperous.

"We know this election will be close. Every vote in every seat matters.

"And while most of the media's attention is on western Sydney, you can ensure western NSW and southern and northern NSW keeps getting the investment it deserves."