The best thing about reviewing one's investment performance over the financial year is that at least one can console oneself with the thought that it is wonderful to be able to afford to gamble on the stock market, instead of sleeping rough and worrying about your constant desire to eat at least once a day.
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And it is gambling. Sorry, all of you guys on six-figure salaries who keep sending me emails, but the stock market is all about anticipating the future, and that's gambling. Some gamblers may be better - or luckier - than others in the short term, but it is still taking a punt, like farming.
It is also cyclical. Drought-stricken paddock one year, paddy field the next. Investors responding to the cycles consistently overshoot. It takes a while for the herd to turn, but then they tend to stampede too far in the opposite direction.
A year ago, the Punter's portfolio was worth $76,177. The last time he looked, it wasn't much over $56,000. Part of that is due to the rapid rise in interest rates, which he underestimated. High rates cripple emerging companies that have a looming need to invest large sums to move to the next level.
But the heavyweights have not fared much better. Graincorp (GNC) is down some 22 per cent on the year, AACo (AAC) is down 30pc, and Cobram Estate Olives (CBO) is down 22pc.
The "winners" include Costa Group (CGC), down some 3pc, and Select Harvests (SHV), down 5pc.
Elders (ELD), more than most, reflects the overall performance/outlook for agriculture across the country. Earnings per share have dipped, and the dividend has been reduced. No surprise, then, that ELD is down some 50pc on the year - despite CEO Mark Allison delaying his retirement.
Hopefully, some of the recent falls on the stock market merely reflect selling to crystallise losses at the end of the financial year.
- The Punter has no financial qualifications and no links to the financial services industry. He owns shares in a number of companies featured in this column.
