The August edition of the United States Department of Agriculture's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report was released last week.
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While its contents resulted in a somewhat muted response, it sets up a potentially interesting position in the coming months and may provide some volatility at the commencement of our own winter crop harvest.
Much of the data released had already been front-run by the market, with reductions in international wheat, barley, corn and soybean production figures somewhat factored in, with some forecasters expecting even more bearish data to be released (namely for US corn production).
However, it was the near negation of these cuts by the drop in global demand figures that have market participants wondering whether the September update will see the USDA forced back to the drawing board.
Assumptions around the larger Ukrainian wheat crop's ability to make its way to market are expected to be reviewed.
The reduction in US corn production (down 11 million tonnes nationally) coinciding with higher international crude oil values (and thus spurring ethanol demand in theory) not being the catalyst for a more bullish market response also has a few scratching their heads.
The broader market now looks to the September update for some careful reconsideration, but until then, we look inward, with our own production forecasts gaining attention.
Winter crops from central Queensland through to central NSW are rounding the home turn with a warm, dry tailwind, and yield potential is being impacted significantly as the mercury nudges 30 degrees in some areas this week.
The Newell looks good in parts, however, you don't have to venture too far west to be reminded just how long it has been between drinks.
Growers have been active market participants these past few of weeks, capitalising on the markets' realisation of tightening east coast production forecasts.
Consumers have also been keen to get some pre-harvest coverage through August, September and October, using the recent downturn in road freight charges to their advantage and drawing on stocks not normally available to them.
Conversely, engagement on new crop forward sales has been minimal, despite handsome prices being published by the merchant fraternity.
Production risk is far too high for most, and with the market being underpinned by this and the Bureau's current outlook, procrastination is as valid a marketing tool as any.
It goes without saying that any rainfall between now and the end of the month will be hugely beneficial for those crops still hanging on to consolidate what is there, with many also looking for a spring break to get summer crop proceedings underway in the next few weeks.
Just don't put the sprinkler on and walk off this time, hey Hughie?!
