Down to Earth: Bob Freebairn talks having a plan for possible drought

I think forecasting, at least for rainfall, has not progressed much through my lifetime and so always having a strategy ready should a drought be developing is as important as ever.

This current dry is now at five months since we have had a significant rain event in our area - along with many other central, western and northern NSW areas.

Prior to a wet March, which many areas north of us missed, we also had way below summer rainfall which came after a wet 2022 spring.

La Nina, indicating wet seasons, was not declared and then ended in March while El Nino has not yet been declared, meaning it's been neutral for the past six months.

Several winter forecasts indicated useful rains, mainly to little avail.

At least one resulted in many farmers outlaying big fertiliser and sowing investments ahead of the non-event.

Part of management to cope with the possible emergence of a long dry, and even droughts, is a regular upgrading assessment of available pasture feed levels.

That allows for decisions such as preparation for feed lotting, early selling, or supplementary feeding.

A letter in our local paper during the 2017-19 drought, lamenting their cows sold for around $100/head, was an example of remiss in forward planning and desperation selling.

In contrast, steers in good condition, although lighter than normal, sold well.

Another drought strategy is to have some of the pasture base capable of responding to rain no matter when it occurs.

For example, a dry winter, early spring means winter legumes like sub clover and medics, as well as summer dormant temperate perennials, hay off early and are unable to adequately use late spring and summer or early autumn rains should they occur.

In contrast, summer perennial grasses, and all year perennials like lucerne, are able to respond to rain should late spring and summer rains occur.

On lighter country, suitable tropical grasses can respond, in this growing period, to small rain events, even five millitmetres.

Once the main frost season ends, for us mainly mid-September onwards, one can quickly get useful feed, even in a relatively dry droughty season.

Winter dual purpose or grazing-only crops can be a great asset in years like 2023, provided fallow moisture was conserved and crops sown early.

In our example, dual purpose paddocks were fallowed from last season in the case of repeat cropping paddocks.

One new paddock, converting from improved native pasture, was also fallowed from early December.

Glyphosate, sometimes with additives, or followed by gramoxone for double knock, was applied post-significant fallow rains.

That achieved good fallow weed control and maximised stored fallow moisture.

These crops, in our case winter habit Kokoda triticale, have fed and fattened steers since mid-May until the present at around 2.2 steers/ha.

They have allowed steers to be sold at target weights 470-500 kg/head. Not replacing all of these has allowed destocking, so far, to 75pc of our normal levels until we feel the dry has broken.

A problem with dual purpose crops for many farms this year has been lack of reliable rain events to feel confident about topdressing nitrogen onto them.

We took a gamble and top-dressed ahead of a late April rain forecast and fortunately received the minimal needed 5mm.

That has provided a good but not spectacular response.

Another part of dry weather management has been utilisation of carryover summer grass.

With early - for us - April frosts, followed by dry conditions, quality of this has remained relatively good through winter and has been well utilised.

Part of their quality is also related to good soil fertility.

Urea based dry lick has likely helped steer growth rates and up until now has only been consumed at low levels.

Serradella and biserrula, renowned for rooting deeper than most other winter legumes, have hung on better over the dry winter providing useful high quality feed.

This has added quality to dry feed.

Part of our upgrade program since the last drought also includes more hay storage and a much improved water supply and distribution system.

Finally everyone will handle this possibly developing drought differently.

I feel a planned approach is the key requirement.

Next week: Choose varieties with best disease resistance.