Frosts, dry weather hurdles in countdown to season's harvest

His later sown crops appear on track to exceed two tonnes a hectare, maybe 2.5t/ha.

But as Mr Robson said, when he walked into the crop, something didn't feel right.

"Walking into the crop, I would be surprised if it would crack 2t/ha," Mr Robson said, after having inspected the frost damage.

He's got plenty of moisture, but the telltale signs of undeveloped pods, damaged by frost, are now showing.

"I've got some concerns about the potential of the crop given the level of frost damage amongst it," he said on Monday, as he pulled another head off a plant and showed the clear difference between the pods that were filling and those that weren't.

In another earlier-sown paddock, it was the same story, but with the frosted pods further down the head.

It's not only frosts farmers are dealing with at a time when new crop canola bids into Newcastle Port have hit $725/tonne and $715/t into Port Kembla.

As canola conditions are variable across the state, there is one thing in common as all areas are now struggling with hot, dry weather.

Despite the heat, back on Mr Robson's farm, the one big factor in his favour was the excellent moisture levels under the crop.

He hoped this would temper the effects of this week's hot weather and encourage the crop to prolong its flowering and recover some of its lost yield.

"Given the fact the crop's still flowering and there's plenty of moisture I'm hoping those flowers can compensate and make up the difference," he said.

The crop is Nuseed's HyTTec Trophy that was sown around May 7-5 and totals 540ha, run alongside 500ha of wheat, and 2200 ewes used for prime lamb production on his remaining 400-500ha.

He plans to have his agronomist assess the full extent of the frost damage, but estimates it has taken about 50 per cent of his yield.

"If cool weather returns and it flowers for another fortnight or three weeks, with rainfall, it could make a bit of difference," he said.

Further south, at Narrandera, Elders agronomist David Coddington painted a rosier picture with crops still expected to make the 2-2.5t/ha, although many growers were keen to see some finishing rain.

He said this week's dry, warm weather was expected to "take the top off it", however, frost hadn't been an issue in his area, where it was the early-sown barley crops that were shaping up as the standouts this season.

At Cootamundra, Rural Management Strategies associate consultant Fred Broughton, said the canola was just coming into the end of flowering, but frosts were also a big concern.

Mr Broughton said some minor damage could be seen due to the frosts, which would become more evident as the crops matured.

In the Deniliquin area, I K Caldwell agronomist Lachlan Holden said those who got canola in on time with vigorous hybrid varieties were looking good.

"Nitrogen was very short this year so those who were able to get some, get it on, sow on time, keep weeds down, they're still looking good - which is 90 per cent of growers," he said.

Mr Holden said yields of 1.5t/ha to 2.5t/ha would be common on the dryland areas, while irrigated growers would be hoping for north of 3t/ha.

"There are lots of good crops with a good amount of biomass which is an indicator of future yield," he said.

"We've just got to keep an eye out on insects going forward - aphids and grubs might be an issue."

Off the back of a very wet year last year Mr Holden said disease was much less prevalent this season.

"Lots of crops still got a fungicide on them to prevent things like sclerotinia but visually there's a lot less disease," he said.

In the north at Tamworth, Alice Bowler who is an agronomist with AMPS Commercial, said early sown canola had a chance of producing a half-decent crop, but any canola sown in May without sufficient moisture would likely get pounded.

Ms Bowler said once the temperatures get to 28 degrees and hotter during the flowering stages, they would be in real trouble if they did not get excellent moisture - and decisions would be made in the next few weeks.

Giving a snapshot across the state, Lloyd George from Ag Scientia said yield potential was in retreat in all areas, but some areas were better situated than others. ABARES forecast NSW canola production at 1.1 million tonnes based on an average yield of 1.3 t/ha but this may be optimistic now, he says.

Mr George said crop conditions in the north were "terrible and going backwards" by the day.

"It's been a difficult season for most of northern NSW from March and it hasn't improved. Northern farmers got some canola planted many of the crops won't be harvested and yields will be poor if they are harvested," he said.

While crops were holding up better in southern NSW, he said those in the south and western cropping zones were feeling the impacts of the prolonged dry weather, coupled with the recent excessive heat.