Significant rain event a win for southern growers but will it be enough in the north?

At the time of The Land going to press midday on Wednesday, the system was predicted to soak a wide swath of the state.

Overnight falls in the lead up to an occluded cyclonic system that developed over central and southern portions of the state were promising for Finley dairy producer Neville Kydd, who reported 60 millimetres of "beautiful steady rain, great for crops and pasture".

At Deniliquin, to the west, 72mm landed in the gauge.

Further north at Hay nearly 50mm dropped the dust at the local airport, accompanied by cool southerly winds gusting to nearly 40 kilometres per hour.

The western districts gained a rare drop from this developing system with Pooncarie recording 20mm while Fowlers Gap north of Broken hill got nearly 9mm.

Cobar experienced more bluster than moisture with only a couple of millimetres recorded while north-westerly winds ahead of the change touched 50km/hr.

Near Mellool, east of Swan Hill, farmer Brett Dunn welcomed 45mm of steady rain during Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

"It's good on where we've sown some rice," he said. "Most of our barley had pretty much finished, but it will help wheat and peas.

"We had 45mm in June which was the best rain we've ever had and we haven't really looked back since then," he said. "We might actually get two good years in a row."

Don Kirkpatrick at Maxwell had 8mm Tuesday night with further rain expected during Wednesday.

With 500mm recorded for the year to the end of August, Mr Kirkpatrick said they had an excellent season with plenty of feed for cattle. The rain would be a nice top up.

"We were starting to think some rain would be nice the last week of September," he said. "The sub clover looks outstanding although it is looking for a drink now," he said.

"All the lucerne paddocks are tapped into subsoil moisture but this rain will freshen it up. It will go mad from next week onwards."

The further north you go the less joy there is in the season and this rain bearing system.

The Schuster family, Dubbo (pictured on our cover), planted 500ha of canola, wheat and barley and would have preferred the rain to fall earlier in the season, but won't say no to a top-up this week.

"We have written the crops down substantially since June but still hold hope," Peter Schuster said. "We've hung on with them, we haven't grazed them out like many have."

Earlier planted crops fared better than those that followed, with roots following moisture down through the profile. However, there has been no rain since July with very little in-crop moisture.

"Our crops are modest compared to other years, but we'd still be in a good position if we can get that inch of rain," he said.

"The rain will mean a huge amount, you could probably put a dollar figure on it, it will be substantial. It will mean a lot of grain weight relative to what we could have if it doesn't rain.

"It would make the difference between being a margin with some crops and others not finishing."

Mr Schuster, who spent some money at the Egelabra Merino sale on Wednesday, said he also hoped the rain would kick-start some sort of re-boot in the lamb market.

"We really hope the rain brings some buyer confidence back into the market as it is sorely lacking at the moment. There isn't a lot of logic in the sell off we've seen.

"Stock is severely undervalued and if we get rain maybe there will be a return of confidence that will lift those markets back up.

"The rain would make a significant difference if we can get it."

Wednesday's rain event was preceded the day before by hot and blustery northerlies that fed bushfires all over the state.

Out of control blazes near Cessnock, near Lake Macquarie and south of Bermagui all threatened homes with the South Coast blaze claiming more than 5000ha by Wednesday morning.

In the Central West the winds buffeted the landscape to 61km/hr at Condobolin Tuesday morning with temperatures to 33 degrees Celsius that afternoon. Girilambone went two and a half degrees higher than that.

Grain brokers eyeballing crop south of Forbes expressed concern as the wind continued.

"We've had a hot northerly all long weekend and now," said Young trader Troy Lamb on Tuesday.

"The crop will want a drink at the end of it."

At Cowra grain trader Angus Johnston said whatever came out of the rain event would be welcome, but he feared a long hot summer would follow.

His concerns are confirmed by the Bureau's own predictions, which place emphasis on major climatic drivers El Nino and the Indian Ocean Dipole between now and Christmas.

We have already experienced a record-hot September, and October records came close to being broken in the west just two days in.

However, this month also looks to bring the best chance of a break.

For instance, next week there is a united signal among forecast models that a tropical trough in western Queensland could bring rain over the border into western NSW.

"All models are pointing to that western Queensland trough line which gives a weight of confidence looking out to Monday, October 9 but we approach that forecast with caution," Bureau senior forecaster Sarah Scully said.

"Usually you can only hang your hat on a a three to four day forecast."