![Goat exports to China have skyrocketed this year, but the US is where all eyes are focused. Goat exports to China have skyrocketed this year, but the US is where all eyes are focused.](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/38U3JBx5nNussShT8aZyYjc/905a6abc-ae87-411c-96f9-6d725f13cb33.jpg/r0_0_2880_1619_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
It's not just beef that has high expectations from the United States cattle herd shifting into rebuild early next year.
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across the nation
Goat demand too could skyrocket, and take prices with it.
More than half of Australia's goat exports head the way of Americans.
This little nugget of potential emerged from a livestock markets discussion around the so-called US dynamic at Meat & Livestock Australia's flagship event, Updates, in Bendigo.
With the US breeder cattle inventory now at a six-decade low following a drought that has lasted twice as long as that country's past two droughts, their rebuild will be a mammoth task.
Analysts believe it will strip both the US domestic market and the global market of beef for years, leaving big gaps for countries like Australia to capitalise on.
MLA markets analyst Ripley Atkinson said analysts were also looking to how goat prices would perform as the turnaround in the beef herd unfolds.
He said there were consumers who shifted from goat into beef in the US as it became cheaper during these past years of liquidation.
"The thinking is they will move back into the goat space once beef prices go up and that will provide extra demand for goat meat," he said.
Australia last year exported 57 per cent of its production to the US.
Australia is the largest exporter of goat meat in the world, and the latest quarterly data shows goat slaughter, production and exports lifted markedly from already-high levels.
Weekly slaughter is up by 60pc, or 700,000 head, year-to-date.
"Much like in cattle, goat exports are very strong at the moment," Mr Atkinson said.
So far in 2023, goat exports have lifted by 47pc year-on-year to 27,816 tonnes, which is the second-highest export volume on record.
"And we are seeing a real improvement in China and other countries outside of the US, such as Taiwan and South Korea," Mr Atkinson said.
Declining prices - the market is down 60pc or $3 a kilogram year-on-year - had allowed price-sensitive Chinese buyers to step back into the market, he said.
"We'll see record goat exports to China this year," he said.
Last year, goat exports to China sat at just 289 tonnes. This year, they have lifted 4,053pc to 5,587t, or 20pc of total export volume.
"We are getting diversity and showing we can export to other countries and that's all very positive for the goat industry, especially at a time of high supply," Mr Atkinson said.
At the same time as slaughter volumes have been increasing, goat carcase weights have fallen and are now below the five-year average of 16.6 kilogram, MLA data shows.
The elevated slaughter has more likely come from rangeland systems than managed systems, which tend to turn-off at heavier weights.