January has come and gone, leaving the east coast cropping regions to have missed the Bureau of Meteorology's early forecast of below average rainfall for the summer period.
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Contrary to the forecast, most regions received well over the long-term average, ensuring that the agricultural sector remains full of optimism ahead of the upcoming winter cropping program.
For the most part, NSW and Queensland have recorded a relatively hot January.
The moisture profile has been topped up considerably and frequently, partially thanks to the unstable systems that have delivered more than a month's worth of rainfall in short periods of time.
Not only have the winter croppers got a spring in their step but those summer croppers, particularly southern Queensland and northern NSW, are reportedly already marching onwards to the nearest Toyota dealership to treat themselves.
The wet summer has resulted in most forecasters estimating the sorghum crop coming to exceeding two million tonnes.
With the early harvest already commencing and little to no signs of early quality issues, growers alike are in the box seat to capitalise once again.
Domestic commodity markets however have come under pressure for the month of January, with the general theme being a bearish tone across wheat, barley and canola.
Canola has been rather volatile trading a range of $60 to $70 a tonne where recently in the Port Kembla zone we recorded significant volumes trade when $600/t was on offer at local depots.
Barley markets have also come under pressure even with some impressive cattle on feed numbers of circa 1.2 million head supporting demand, feeder margins have at the same time been getting squeezed with the feeder steer price surging.
Barley delivered into Jindalee feedlot is now $325/t and most homes on the northern side of the Queensland border bid between $390/t and $400/t delivered.
Onto the wheat and finally the tail has been cleaned up with the last of the Victorian Western districts crop now in the bin.
Markets have come under pressure as traders explore avenues to deal with what ended up being a much bigger harvest then expected at circa 25 million tonnes.
Australian Standard White wheat (ASW1) on the east coast was the main flavour this year as growers battled to apply enough nitrogen during the growing season to yield any better quality.
In NSW, Hanwood has traded down to $340/t delivered, homes on the Liverpool Plains and Melbourne and Geelong terminals around $360/t delivered and for system stock, $350/t to $360/t Port Kembla track has been the money of late.
The protein premiums are slowly eroding as in the northern markets, wheat has already become wheat as the export destinations are drying up and cattle funnily enough don't discriminate between Australian Prime Hard (APH2) and ASW1.
If the long term weather models are anything to go by, there has been a noticeable shift in the forecast seemingly becoming more favourable again for the winter cropping programs as the likelihood of the La Nina pattern emerging increases.
All in all, here's to a glass half full and hopefully, another prosperous year for all.
