Back in November, the Punter placed an order for 400 shares in Nufarm (ASX code NUF) at $4.20, expecting them to drop back to that level. Silly boy.
With only the occasional hiccup, the shares have since risen more than 20 per cent.
At the start of this month, Macquarie analysts cut their estimate of the value of the shares by 1.2 per cent, but only to $5.73, while Bell Potter upped their estimate to $6.35 a share.
The Punter doesn't set much store by brokers' estimates but his bid of $4.20 is clearly rubbish.
On paper, NUF shares look a tad expensive.
They yield less than 2pc in dividend income, sell for more than 16 times earnings and have a debt to equity ratio of around 55pc, compared to a market average of 36pc.
Debt remains, however, within the company's target of not more than twice gross earnings.
CEO Greg Hunt's speech to the AGM on February 1 was pretty upbeat.
With demand for biofuels forecast to rise by 25pc over the next five years, he expects Nufarm's Carinata and Energy Cane to be leading contenders in the biofuel feedstock sector.
The seed technologies segment last year saw gross profits up by two thirds. It now accounts for a fifth of Nufarm's business.
After 10 years of development, its Omega 3 canola is now expected to bring in $50-$70 million in revenue in the current financial year, and double that next year.
Hunt sees continued growth in the crop protection business and reckons the company overall is on track to meet its 2026 targets.
This could lift the earnings per share from 30 cents to as much as 47 cents, with shareholders getting dividends of 14 cents a share rather than the current 10 cents. With the threat of a disastrous El Nino seemingly much reduced, the Punter has paid $5.50 a share for 400 NUF.
- The Punter has no financial qualifications and no links to the financial services industry. He owns shares in a number of companies featured in this column.