Cotton prices back to growers are expected to remain lucrative through next year but patchy rainfall during the latter half of the growing season across the northern NSW is frustrating dryland production.
Cautious growers who opted to skip the odd row in order to conserve moisture are being vindicated as the tap has turned off across most growing districts.
Those who find themselves under the odd shower are producing very good crops.
First time dryland cotton grower Jack Ticehurst, Gunyanna, who farms in partnership with the Newcomen family, said the trickiest part of the program was getting the crop of 748 variety out of the ground and he highlighted the need to sow correctly at the right depth with seed population and spacing critical.
He opted to use 748 variety, suited to dryland production, with eight plants to the metre as an average.
While paddocks had a full moisture profile at sowing Mr Ticehurst opted to skip the occasional row to conserve moisture.
"I knew we'd be hanging on it if it dried out," he said.
There was good rainfall in the lead-up to New Year allowing for excellent plant establishment but since then the tap has turned off. While plants wouldn't mind a drink they are pushing ahead with fruit-set following flowering.
"The cotton is going okay," he said. "I would love a good fall of rain to finish it off but overall it is hanging alright considering the conditions it has had in the last couple of weeks."
Byron Birch farms dryland cotton at Bumblebee Manor, west of Bellatta, and said his crop was looking for a drink after a great start to the season.
"My confidence on the crop at harvest is about medium," he reported. "It's kind of hard to watch. Dryland crops around Narrabri and Walgett are desperate. Closer to Moree they might survive.
"With farm inputs getting more and more expensive it's getting harder."
Conservative approach to planting can pay dividends in a year such as this one. By skipping a row to conserve moisture will assist the crop during fruit development.
He advises new growers to take a long-term view.
"Cotton has a high gross margin when taken over a ten year average," he said.
Agronomically it allows growers to get on top of weeds during the two winters of fallow prior to planting.
"We try to avoid sorghum in our rotation because it's hard to make it work with resistant grass weeds, unless you double-crop with chickpeas.
"But over the long term cotton has the ability to be very profitable in some years for our northern growing areas."
Agronomist Gavin McDouall, HMAg, Moree, said the variable aspect of this year's dryland crop revolved around storm rain.
"There are some exceptional crops around that have got under the storms," he said. "But there are some that won't be fancy."
Insect pressure has been average to below average in dryland. Weed pressure has been back but for those under the rain it has been normal.
"Prices are looking good this year and next and if cotton works in your rotation it can be lucrative but it doesn't suit everybody and it doesn't suit some country."
Tony Bailey, Bundy Station on the Terry Hie Hie Road, has three decades of cotton growing experience behind him and advises young players to "get a good agronomist and be prepared to spend the money".
With cotton most of the money is needed at the back end of the season, with prices for stripping and carting around $200/ha.
End-point royalties for seed can be paid based on yield or per hectare but with quality genetics like Bollgard 3 and Xtendflex there is a need for growers to invest up front.
This year he has been "lucky" with a couple of farmed blocks under good storms.
"If we get 2.5 to 3 bales per hectare at $700 each we will probably make money," he said. "We try to take the gamble out of it.
"In our 30 years of growing the development of precision planting has been fantastic," he said. "It's important to get seed spacing correct so plants grow uniformly."
Mr Bailey stressed the importance of ensuring a full moisture profile well before planting cotton.
When he harvested wheat in 2023 he employed a stripper header to leave more stubble behind, sheltering soil from wind and sun to help ensure that planting more than 12 months later had all the help it could get.
"Rotation is extremely important," he said. "There is no point planting without a full moisture profile."
Rabobank analysts predict cotton prices next year to be similar to today, hovering around or just under $700 a bale.
The ICE #2 cotton price climbed above US100c/lb in late February - a 21pc increase month on month.
Inventories have fallen during 2023, thanks to dry Texas summers, and mills need to purchase product with Vietnam and China taking the lion's share followed by Bangladesh and India. China's own production is in decline leading to higher imports through 2024/25, said Rabobank.
However analysts predict a global lift in production next year with 3pc of that attributed to US drought recovery with crops increasing in potential yield 20pc year on year and as a result production is expected to exceed consumption.
