The window for winter crop sowing is now underway across large parts of NSW and Queensland, with Victoria not far off starting.
Above-average summer rainfall across large parts of the East Coast has allowed for sufficient build-up of subsoil moisture reserves, and NSW is experiencing an exceptionally well-timed seasonal break.
Growers are cautiously optimistic for another productive season.
The ABARES March 2024 report forecasts a two per cent rise in the nominal value of crop production to $49 billion.
This increase is largely led by higher volumes of wheat and barley, totalling approximately $400 million, with favourable weather conditions supporting larger growing areas.
This increased production is likely to offset lower prices currently being seen in Australia.
Wheat prices are forecast to remain low for the remainder of 2024, barring any major issues, given the large levels of supply available globally.
Canola production is also forecast to increase by approximately $300 million in 2024/25.
Like wheat and barley, this is driven by an expected increase in production rather than an increase in commodity prices, largely due to improved yields via genetically modified hybrid canola varieties.
The overall planted area will be determined by the timing of rainfall at planting and expected gross margin returns.
The planting area is expected to rise by one per cent for a total of 3.5 million hectares this season, which would make it the second-largest area on record.
One uncertainty underpinning this prediction is the timely sowing rainfall required in Western Australia.
WA is experiencing drier-than-normal conditions for this time of year, with persistent dry weather having been experienced since 2023.
As a result, many growers in the west are waiting to commence sowing, looking to make the most of the sowing window.
It is expected that Australian Canola prices will remain steady over 2024/25, with increased global supply reducing demand in the short term.
All eyes turned to the Bureau of Meteorology's first winter forecast late last week.
The bureau modelling is showing the potential for the warmest winter on record across Australia, with the report suggesting minimum and maximum temperatures are likely to be one to two degrees above the long-term average.
Social media weathermen are strongly supporting the conclusion of El Nino at the end of April 2024.
The bureau is playing down the chance of La Nina developing but not writing it off entirely.
The forecast at this point is for a fifty-fifty chance of it being not wetter or drier than average, but should Pacific Ocean water temperatures decrease, this will strengthen the chance of a La Nina event.
In summary, growers have been patiently waiting to fire up tractors for the glorious time of year, that is winter sowing.
Growers are quietly optimistic, with some describing this as the best-timed autumn break they have ever seen.
While global demand is keeping commodity prices lower than in previous years, it is expected that yield potential will make up for these lower prices.
Lastly, all eyes will be keeping watch on the weather apps, hoping for in-crop rainfall to follow the same timely pattern as the autumn break.
