Significant increases in flow targets and the Menindee Lakes storage minimum could have a devastating impact on northern Murray Darling Basin communities if the numbers proposed by the Independent Connectivity Expert Panel review into the Barwon-Darling River are adopted.
That's according to NSW Irrigators' Council, which believes more than half a billion dollars a year will be removed from northern basin economies, the flow targets proposed in "this rogue report" by the panel will effectively render supplementary and floodplain harvesting licences useless during wet periods.
"At face value, the lost net return from the inevitable hit to food and fibre growing is more than $520 million dollars every single year," said NSW Irrigators' Council CEO Claire Miller.
"That's more than half a billion dollars ripped out of the local economies of towns such as Moree, Walgett and Bourke, which are already struggling with entrenched socioeconomic disadvantage, particularly in their indigenous communities."
Ms Miller questioned the validity of the report and the recommendations.
"The panel admits in its interim report that it does not have the data or modelling to fully assess the potential impacts on upstream users or the benefits to downstream communities of its proposed rules," she said.
"But that hasn't stopped it making ill-informed recommendations to impose inflated flow targets that will effectively shut down irrigated agriculture in the northern NSW basin.
"Even after recommending all but shutting down supplementary and floodplain harvesting water access, they want the Government to raid farmers' general security accounts in the public dams if base flows are still not meeting targets."
While the impact of changes proposed by the review will be limited in the Peel Valley, the impact on the wider industry is "greatly concerning".
This is the view of Peel Irrigators' president, John Richards, Tamworth, who said users in the Namoi Valley, already undergoing changes in high-flow or overland harvesting, could be even more confused.
Mr Richards said if the proposals were accepted, they would "fundamentally change the rules in water usage and cause chaos".
He said the modelling adopted by the review committee was also flawed as dams in the upper catchments ensure there was a greater and longer period of flow than "natural flows" before European settlement.
"I just think it would be short-sighted to step in and change the rules on this committee's recommendations," Mr Richards said.
"Does this committee recognise whether the irrigation industry has a justifiable place in the rural landscape?"
Matt Norrie believes if the recommendations are adopted, irrigators will change the way they operate.
Mr Norrie and his family farm 1800 hectares on Mollee, 10 kilometres north-west of Narrabri, with 500 hectares irrigated and that land produces about 70 per cent of the farm income.
Mr Norrie said the provision in the recommendations to take general security water for environmental flows would change the mindset of every irrigator.
"There is an over-reach into general security water on the table," he said.
"It seems the recommendations of this report go far beyond what we've seen in other forms of recovery.
"Setting a precedent that you're going to have over-reach into general security for connectivity flows, that says the pool of water that's there for base flows and environmental flows has been exhausted, is concerning.
"It's only there because you've got irrigators that are conservative and save their water for the dry times.
"If you start to threaten being able to do that, it's going to influence irrigator behavior where you're going to start having them using general security quicker, probably on crops that don't have the highest return per megalitre, for the fear that they may not actually get to use the water that's been allocated to them."
Mr Norrie said the recommendations on the restriction of supplementary and floodplain harvesting would cost the community jobs.
"We've just been through a reform process for floodplain harvesting which is a good thing," he said.
"But if you start restricting that and people can't get the historical access that they've had and now are licensed and regulated to take, you're just costing community jobs.
"First of all, you cut production and the requirement for workers is not there. Employment drops, services drop and towns drop. It's a socioeconomic decline."
Minister for Water Rose Jackson said improving river connectivity was a major priority.
She wanted to ensure there was an adequate level of water flowing between river systems which was critical for sharing water fairly and supporting the health of rivers.
"There are serious concerns for the health of the Barwon-Darling river system, and the communities that rely on it," she said.
"When the final report is handed in around June this year, we will carefully review all recommendations and determine next steps."
Two webinars on the panel's interim findings will be held from 5pm and 6pm on Wednesday, May 1, and between 12pm and 1pm on Friday, May 3, respectively.
