While the Bureau of Meteorology might be gun shy about declaring a La Nina is now likely to follow hot on the heels of the El Nino, other weather agencies are not so shy.
Subscribe now for unlimited access to all our agricultural news
across the nation
or signup to continue reading
BoM has copped a lot of flak over its El Nino forecast last year, and this week it has announced the "early signs" of an La Nina forming.
Some wet weather would be a relief for many graingrowers in the southern states who have been forced to dry sow their crops.
The bureau says while the El Nino-Southern Oscillation is currently neutral "there are some early signs that a La Nina might form in the Pacific Ocean later in 2024".
BoM has officially placed Australia on a La Nina watch.
Australia's damaging La Nina run ended last year at the end of a triple La Nina in 2020/21, 2021/22 and 2022/23, just the third time in recorded history the event has occurred three years in a row in Australia.
Then came the dire El Nino warning (also supported by overseas agencies) in September.
The bureau said when La Nina "watch" criteria have been met in the past, a La Nina event has subsequently developed around half the time.
For those looking for rain from the climate shift right now, the La Nina is expected to form too late to impact the weather just yet - it is expected to form in the second half of the year.
While BoM is hesitant, the international climate models it follows are not.
The US National Weather Service has been tipping the formation of a La Nina for some months.
The weather service expects the La Nina could form from July to August (49 per cent) or there is a better chance from July to September (69 per cent).
The indication of the La Nina forming later in the year requires continued cooling of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, as they have been since December.
Global sea surface temperatures have been the warmest on record for each month between April 2023 and April 2024 and have given long-range climate forecasters some pause.
"It is important to emphasise that early signs of La Nina are most relevant to the climate of the tropical Pacific, and that the long-range forecast for Australian rainfall and temperature provides better guidance for local climate," BoM said in a statement on Tuesday.
Chris McLennan
ACM national rural property writer based in Bacchus Marsh, Victoria. Career journalist. Multi award winner.
ACM national rural property writer based in Bacchus Marsh, Victoria. Career journalist. Multi award winner.
