As has now been the case for some time, we still expect above average rainfall to occur during winter, though we may see the impacts of the La Nina weaken as we push towards the second half of winter.
What is more likely to occur is an above average number of rain days that results in above average rainfall occurring, but moisture availability will be lower than earlier this year and as a result, any riverine flooding - if it occurs - is favoured to be more minor.
However, to balance off the possible decreasing influence of the La Nina, the Indian Ocean Dipole is now favoured to become negative for the rest of winter and into spring, encouraging the prediction of slightly above average rainfall persisting for many months to come.
Once the current spell of usually cool, clear days (which has been a temporary synoptic aberration but one that is likely to be repeated a few times during winter) comes to an end shortly, the increase in cloud cover that is likely to follow will result in average to below average maximum temperatures, though minimums may be average to above average in response to the thicker cloud and higher levels of humidity.
Consequently, the frequency of frosts is likely to be lower than average in late winter, but the occasional, brief cold spell is still expected so the odd frost day could still be significant.
This feature will continue into the early spring, especially in the north of NSW and southern Queensland.
Getting back to basics, the science associated with medium and long term weather forecasting is only slowly improving.
The weather over the oceans around our continent influence our rainfall and temperature patterns a lot more than was thought 20 to 30 years ago.
The Pacific and Indian oceans have the more important indicators.
To the south, the Southern Annular Mode and to the north the Madden-Julien Oscillation are not as important, partially because their variability is greater and therefore, they are more difficult to use as predictive tools.
That said, however, all can have an effect.
The SAM is the least predictable and its variation can be dependent on the ENSO in the Pacific and the IOD in the Indian Ocean, while to the north MJO has minimal effect on our weather until spring.
However, with sea surface temperatures remaining above normal off eastern and north west Australia, combined with expected movements in La Nina and the IOD, there is still a level of confidence in the predictions that much of the remainder of 2022 will see above average rainfall in large areas of eastern Australia.
Sign up for our newsletter to stay up to date.