The feedlot sector has spoken publicly about the future of sustainable price, and says where it sits today is not workable.
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At a forum held during the Primex Field Days at Casino, producers heard from industry figureheads that "beef is it's own worst enemy," when it comes to cheering the price onwards and upwards, beyond what the market considers acceptable.
While breeders and backgrounders have been rolling in record prices, processors have been feeling the stick at the opposite end of the commodity cycle.
Feedlotters are doing it tough too, with Elders Killara at Quirindi recording just $30 per head margin after purchase price and 70 to 150 days on feed. While demand for Wagyu and first-cross continues to shine, the return from your everyday blacks no longer pays its way.
"If you are going to produce Angus make sure it is at the premium end," advised Killara general manager Andrew Talbot, noting that carcases with anything less than marble score 4 are not worth the effort.
Latest MLA figures report a decline in numbers of cattle on feed and Mr Talbot agreed that the trend - with a greater amount of money required to maintain margins - was taking its toll on businesses.
"I see the pressure. It's real," he said. "Supply chains are shutting down. It's not all good."
With inflation "sucking consumers' wallets dry" there follows a point where there will be a reduction in demand due to price.
"We are hurting ourselves by our success in the beef industry," he said. "Our price level is well above global competition.
"The US can get HGP meat into China. We can't. The market dumps us for five cents a kilogram."
Expected decisions from China about whether it will re-enter our markets has the sector holding its breath as drought in the US forces a record number of cattle through the processors.
He pointed out that while the US exports just 10 per cent of its production, they are still able to dump meat into Japan, Korea and China with the result that Australia loses market share.
The good news is that the premium end remains buoyant.
Read more: Primex Field Days in photographs.
"There is an insatiable demand for Wagyu," said Mr Talbot. "It was 1200c/kg now 1600c/kg carcase weight. That sector remains strong.
"Angus 12 months ago we couldn't sell enough, but now Angus is under pressure."
When steers to feed come with a 630c/kg price tag and demand rations at $400/t for an output price of 1100c/kg there is huge risk for little gain.
In fact, Mr Talbot quoted a margin of just $30 ahead, while the processors continue to claim a loss of $300 per beast.
"The backgrounders and producers have made all the money," Mr Talbot said.
"If you're in Angus focus on the best. Four plus marble score is the same as US Prime and that's where the big premiums lie, and we like to get 1100c/kg for mid-fed, 150 to 200 days. Without that it's all red ink. If in six months time the price we get is 900c/kg what are we going to do? There's no cheap grain. The only way is with cheaper feeder prices. It's pure economics.
"Feeder steers were 630c/kg six months ago and now they are 520c/kg. And there is more downside in the short term. Feedlots used to pay 640c/kg for heifers now its 500c/kg. We're on a downward trend."
Mr Talbot said he believed in positive change come anticipated Beijing decisions in the new year.
"In the short term there will be more downward pressure but the world will change in April. We just have to deal with the pain for the next six months. Restockers will have to get cheaper and this will affect backgrounders.
"Does the producer need $2600 for a weaner? That sort of success will hurt us."
