Extreme snowfall in California an early sign that climate cycle is shifting away from drought for US beef producers

During the severe drought that gripped the US west, and midwest, restockers were out of the business and cull cattle, grain finished, flooded Australia's export markets. Now, as the El Nino Southern Oscillation cycle begins to shift, US restockers might hold rather than fold and that would be good for Australian graziers.

The Land's weather columnist, Don White, says recent weather events in California illustrate the shift - with snow flurries swirling around the Hollywood sign north of Los Angeles for the first time in 80 years.

Mammoth Mountain near Lake Tahoe recorded a remarkable 15 meters of the white stuff for the year so far which is one-third more than average.

The Bureau of Meteorology this week announced that the 2022-2023 La Nina has ended. The tropical Pacific Ocean is now in a neutral phase - neither La Nina nor El Nino - but there are concerning signs that a shift could come sooner than later.

While the Pacific Ocean is ENSO-neutral, the Bureau has moved to El Nino "watch" as there are there are some signs of El Nino forming later in the year. El Nino watch means there is a 50 per cent chance of El Nino in 2023.

"The climate will change over the next few months," said Mr White. "But we are in uncharted territory with the oceans warmer now than at any time in recorded history."

To confuse the issue California recorded a warmer winter than normal while experiencing extreme precipitation.

"That's the world we're going into," said Mr White.

"It will be a world of extremes."

The US National Weather Service climate prediction centre points out a concerning trend in the eastern Pacific.

"It is possible that strong warming near South America may portend a more rapid evolution toward El Nino and will be closely monitored," it reported last week.

Meanwhile, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Technical Lead Extended Prediction Dr Andrew Watkins said the northern wet season, including the tropical cyclone season, for northern Australia will continue during March and April, so "there remains the chance of tropical weather systems bringing heavy rain at times to the north."

If these tropical weather systems extend south, there remains the possibility of periods of heavy rainfall, and flooding, particularly in parts of eastern Australia where soils remain wet and rivers and dams are still full.

Dr Watkins said should the chance of El Nino forming later in 2023 increase to around 70pc, the Bureau would change to El Nino "alert" status.

"Even if El Nino impacts Australia, this does not necessarily lead to drought," he said.

"There have been 27 El Nino years since 1900, and around 18 of those years were affected by widespread winter-spring drought."

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