IN RECENT weeks, occasional Southern Ocean fronts have brought wet and windy weather to the south west of Australia and generated some cloud bands that have brought at least light to moderate rain events across south east Australia.
As a result, winter rainfall in many parts of NSW and Victoria has been at least close to average so far and this trend is likely to continue.
Overall, there has been little or no change in most climate indicators for this part of the world in recent weeks. All climatic indicators continue to point to near neutral conditions persisting for much of the rest of the year.
In fact, in the Pacific, the pattern seems so well entrenched that neutrality is likely to persist until 2022.
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A new set of model runs predicts ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist through to the end of the year at least.
But surprisingly, there are some weak indications that around October and November, the chance of a weak La Nina returning is put at an equal chance of neutrality persisting.
The positive sign is that the chances of an El Nino returning anytime in the next 12 months remains very low at less than 10 per cent.
On its own an ENSO neutral pattern gives no clear indicators of rainfall potential but in many past years when the ENSO in the Pacific has been neutral, winter rainfall in most of eastern Australia has been at least average with, as mentioned previously, extended periods of stable weather which can also be a feature in these conditions.
The Indian Ocean Dipole remains neutral but a slight increase in cooler water south of the Horn of Africa has been evident in recent times.
Such a trend, coupled with the persistence of warmer than normal water in the north east tropical Indian Ocean off north west Australia, slightly increases the chance that the IOD could 'go' a little negative in the late winter months, which would be positive news for winter rainfall potential right across south east Australia.
Although the trend in the IOD remains a little unclear, there are more positive signs than not.
The relatively cool start to 2021 in the south east states looks set to continue, but it must be noted that this still means slightly above the 20th century average winter daytime temperatures (just lower than in recent years).
The occasional but brief cold outbreak is more likely than in average years and so is the potential for frost in late winter and early spring in areas normally so affected.
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