Export future back on the upswing as old bullockies stick to what they know

US grain-finished beef offloaded into Korea and Japan during the drought is drying up as the nation's breeding herd falls to its lowest in half a century.

Figures from February show a 5pc drop in US production after a yearly drop of 2.5pc to 3pc in the kill rate. Meanwhile, domestic consumption continues to eat through the bulk and as that continues - and the turn off dwindles - Australia looks to pick up the slack.

Last month Korea imported 18pc less US beef with only 2pc down from Australia.

"I'd call that steady," says MLA export analyst Tim Jackson. "Participants in the market are already acting as if US supply already is - or will - go down. People are getting ready and ultimately that is good for us."

Mr Jackson's comments echo anonymous murmurs from the processing sector who say the mood is buoyant looking beyond 2023. But no one is ready to state that the EYCI is at its lowest, or that a Jap Ox will turn a profit for the bullockie who is still regaining the loss from last year's expensive steers.

Of course there remains concern that the weather won't co-operate and the US drought will drag on - delaying the start of an epic herd rebuild by one to two years, suggests Bryan Sanderson, US territory manager for nutrition company All-Tech, who has been on speaking tour through NSW this week.

While his home state of South Dakota is under a blanket of snow three times the average depth, he worries about a quick melt, and run-off over hard soil.

"I'm worried we might dry off by mid June," he said from a car en route to Wagga Wagga on Tuesday. "We still have to see if the weather pattern has shifted."

Indeed, a familiar looking north west cloud band over inland Australia this week looked more like La Nina than El Nino, while the southern lights over Albury reminded us that 2024 is the year of maximum solar activity, the exact opposite of 2019.

Being a bullocky in today's market is a restricted business with most breeders selling to the feedlots.

Turning off grown cattle is old fashioned and lately runs a penalty but times are changing and a web of complex dynamics is shape shifting back in favour of the humble bullocky.

Fattening black steers for the Jap Ox market is an enterprise that suits James and Suzanne Landers, Bandon Grove via Dungog, who have not deviated from this line of work in spite of temptations otherwise.

"When other people run you walk," says Mr Landers of his decision not to rush into the production of feeder cattle when the market called for volunteers.

"You've got to know why you are doing it," he says, quoting the mentors who influenced his life of cattle decisions - in particular his father and uncle who ran cattle on three properties around the Barrington Tops. "These men were cattle producers and land managers of the highest order," says Mr Landers.

It helps that Mrs Landers, who grew up on a dairy, is a lifelong equestrian and runs her own kennel. As a result the pair work well together and plan on doing the same for years to come.

"It's harder to get bullocks these days" says Mr Landers. "They're not wild, just not educated. And it's difficult to buy lines of cattle. We can only source a pen at a time."

New arrivals are taught soon enough to respect humans on horses with dogs at foot. And they quieten down quick enough on excellent feed from productive flats - a mix of clovers, cocksfoot, phalaris and chicory.

Producing grown steers for the Jap Ox market involves a universal technique: Keep them on a rising plane of nutrition.

This season has turned exceptional very late, and looks to continue for some weeks to come but the processors are booked out until May.

As a result the Landers' latest crop of bullocks will grow out beyond optimal but in the world of the bullocky this doesn't matter.

"It's the weight that pays," says. Mr Landers. "They pick them too green these days. People say bullocks are tough to eat but that just isn't true. Our bullock beef flares up on the barbecue. It's got fat and flavour."

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