Fresh from a near-perfect planting, Central West farmer, Josh Male, is optimistic about this year's crop and how it is shaping up for harvest.
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But he is counting himself lucky as his case is one of the exceptions, not the rule, with some crops in the northern half of the state balanced on a knife edge.
Mr Male owns and operates a mixed farming enterprise on his 6000-hectare property, Genaren, between Tullamore and Narromine.
This year he planted 1000 hectares of Roundup-ready and Clearfield canola, 500ha of La Trobe barley, and 2500ha of grazing and hard wheats.
The day after the canola was planted dry, he received 30 millimetres of rain.
All the wheat and barley were sown onto moisture, which Mr Male described as "absolutely magic".
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Sheep and cattle graze the wheat, depending on what needs fattening.
Currently, they are lambing Merino ewes on grazing wheat.
"We had a really good run, and we didn't get held up by wet weather," Mr Male said.
"I'm thrilled to get the crop in before July. It's a first for our family, I think."
It starkly contrasts last year's planting, which was plagued by seemingly endless rain.
"Last year was a shocker. We were pulling the air seeder out of the bog every day. But this year, I had no dramas at all," Mr Male said.
"When it came to harvest, we were worried. We were working in the sheds getting gear ready at the start of October, and we had about 70 millimetres of rain.
"It made the season really long, and then literally, the tap got turned off, and we ended up with a cool weather harvest."
![Josh Male, with dog, Fred, inspects his wheat crop on Genaren, in the state's Central West. Picture by Denis Howard Josh Male, with dog, Fred, inspects his wheat crop on Genaren, in the state's Central West. Picture by Denis Howard](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/HP8JNNb9L5GxeLhGSmNhXK/57911921-62aa-4b42-b949-c22da12cec0e.jpg/r0_2121_4961_5035_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
Despite the difficulty securing planes for aerial spraying, Mr Male's wheat yields were above-average for the area (1.5 to 2 tonnes a hectare), recording 2.5t/ha, mainly comprised of H2 and Australian premium white.
"Our yields were fantastic, except for areas where we couldn't spray or get urea out," he said.
"Every farmer in the country wanted a plane; we did one in-crop spray on all our wheat for rust and weeds on October 13, and it did a good job."
The property has received 25mm of rain across three or four rain events since sowing finished at the end of June.
While there was enough subsoil moisture, Mr Male hoped for decent rain in September/October to finish the crop.
This year, Mr Male was budgeting for 2t/ha of wheat, but has hopes for 3t/ha.
"I think it is doable. We just need a bit of rain at the right time," he said.
Across the state it has been a tale of two seasons, with areas in the south inundated to the point where paddock trafficability was impossible, to areas around Moree in the state's north still needing a good soak.
Elders Deniliquin agronomist, Miranda Rose, said clients in her area had a dry start, but have had consistent rain events since.
She said around 80 per cent of the wheat program for the area had been sown with some rice growers deciding not to put in a winter crop this year due to the lack of early moisture.
"We had a bit of a dry start and the guys that could irrigate did," Miss Rose said.
"Then at the conclusion of irrigating, we have sort of had non-stop rain events.
"We have variable soil types around Deniliquin with some lighter country with sandy-loam type soils which are wet but trafficable. Crops there are pretty good.
"It's been the crop that's been sown into old rice bays that hasn't dried out from last season which are struggling with the wet.
"Because of the wet conditions, we've been struggling to do our general herbicide programs and fertiliser programs because we can't traffic those paddocks."
Miss Rose said there have been some insect pressure in the area.
"I have started to see pressure because of the use of untreated seed," she said.
"We've been getting some Russian wheat aphid in patches where seed wasn't treated, so that was expected. If you don't use a treatment, that's what you expect."
Some wheat crops in the Moree district were on a knife edge, according to B&W Rural director Peter Birch.
Mr Birch said only 60pc of the intended program for the area had gone in the ground.
He said most growers east of the Newell Highway had good moisture profiles and some rain events to join it up, while those west of the highway needed significant rain in the next three weeks or there would be some tough decisions to be made.
"East of the highway had good rain over summer and it is looking okay," Mr Birch said.
"All those crops are in the game, which is probably 30 to 40pc of the area.
"They were sown dry and came up patchy but have since filled in okay.
"The west needs a good 30-40mm before August. At this stage 60-70pc of the area is not viable.
"If they don't get the rain, growers will have to decide if they keep the crop, which some may do just to get some cash from it."
McFadyen Ag Consulting director, Andrew McFadyen, said the season was vastly different in the Lake Cargelligo area, depending on which side of the Lachlan River crops were sown.
"Some growers south of the Lachlan have sheep grazing their dual purpose crop, while those north of the river are waiting for it to come out of the ground," he said.
"It takes about $500 per hectare to grow wheat out here so you need yields of at least 1.5t/ha to break even."